Tree fruit volume appears similar to last two years
Tree fruit volume appears similar to last two years
PARLIER, CA -- As recently as two weeks earlier, it would have been hard to imagine that with all of the weather they had been through, California peach, nectarine and plum orchards could possibly set anything remotely close to a full crop this year.
But when the estimating committees met a day prior to the California Tree Fruit Agreement spring meetings April 27, they honed in on a combined crop estimate just under 50 million boxes, similar to each of the last two years and scarcely more than 10 percent below the 55 or 56 million boxes that CTFA's Field Director Dale Janzen said would be considered a full crop for existing acreage.
All varieties are expected to be two weeks later than last year, however.
The 2006 estimate, 49.334 million boxes, is just slightly under last year's actual shipments of 50.867 million boxes and the previous year's 50.9 million boxes. It consists of 20.242 million boxes of peaches, virtually unchanged from last year's 20.177; 17.824 million boxes of nectarines, just under last year's 18.618; and 11.268 million boxes of plums, down slightly from last year's 12.072.
The largest combined California peach, nectarine and plum crop on record was 59.6 million boxes in 2002, a year that also saw a record nectarine crop of 23.3 million boxes. The smallest in the last 10 years was 48.4 million boxes in 1998, a year in which nectarines hit their lowest point in the last decade at 16.9 million packages.
Peaches peaked at 22.5 million packages in 2003 and have not dropped under 20 million since 1998.
Plums have been the most volatile, ranging over the last 10 years from 17.3 million packages in 1997 to a low of 10.3 million packages in 2004.
California plum acreage has declined during the last decade from 42,600 bearing acres in 1996 to 36,000 bearing acres in 2005, according to the California Agricultural Statistics Service. Peach acreage reached a high of 39,000 bearing acres in 2000 and declined to 36,000 acres in 2005. Nectarine acreage has held steady at 36,000 over the last decade.
This year, an array of weather factors affected the crop. A warm winter resulted in low chill hours. That was followed by a cold spring and week after week of rain, during bloom season and beyond. Frost damage and hail damage were both widespread. As one grower put it, "everything that could go wrong has gone wrong."
But remarkably, on average, things had not gone nearly as wrong as it first appeared. As growers got out into their orchards to assess hail and frost damage and other effects of weather, pessimism transformed in many cases to cautious optimism. Yes, the damage was widespread, but in many cases it was not extensive. The various weather factors had served merely to thin out the crop, not destroy it.
Once the rains let up enough that thinning crews could get into the orchards, they found in many cases that there was sufficient good young fruit on the trees for a full crop or nearly so. Some orchards were more severely affected, and a few were devastated, but others remained almost unscathed and have heavy sets.
The Produce News accompanied Mr. Janzen into several orchards in the Reedley, CA, area April 21, as he was assessing the crop's potential. Looking at the trees, he said that in spite of cold temperatures, "lots of rain" and "some pretty good bouts of hail ... we're going to have a decent crop," although not a huge crop.
In one orchard of Snow Angel white peaches, for example, frost and hail damage were both evident, and yet, he said, "There is still plenty of fruit ... to get a crop. It sure does look promising. Look at the vitality of those trees. [Even] after sustaining some frost damage, [they don't] look like [they are] suffering."
Some low-lying areas had more frost damage, "but for the most part we came out pretty well," he said.
Many orchards showed a wide variation in maturity. The trees did not all bloom at the same time, and even on an individual tree, the bloom period was often spread out, so that fruit set at different times. "Where you may usually pick an orchard in a week-and-a- half period, maybe picking three times, this year you are probably going to pick that orchard over three weeks, maybe having to pick four or five times," Mr. Janzen said. That will increase harvesting costs.
"The thinning has just started because of the amount of rain we have had," said Bill Schene of D.J. Forry Co. in Reedley April 19. "It's just too early to tell for us right now. We are hoping it is going to be a normal crop of course - volume and size and everything. Everything is real sporadic. Within a radius mile, you can have some trees with a heavy crop, and the same variety down the road with a light crop."
"There are some blocks are light, some that are heavy," said Mike Garrison of Summeripe Worldwide Inc. in Dinuba. As crews are going through thinning the orchards, they are finding that hail damage "wasn't as bad as anticipated."
"I think that the significant issue that we have had to deal with [this season] is the weather," said Pat Ricchiuti of P-R Farms in Clovis. Cool, wet weather has delayed maturity and the extended bloom period "is going to cause a problem with harvesting because you will probably have to harvest many more times to get that fruit."
"There is no doubt that the growing conditions over the past six months have been anything but ideal. There have just been a lot of problems," said Mike Aiton of Sun World, headquartered in Bakersfield. "The trees have been battered and bruised and confused, and we are really just now beginning to understand what damage has been done and to assess the size of the crop out there." But although "it has been a difficult growing season, he said, "these trees seem to be fairly resilient. We feel fairly confident that although our volume is going to be down from a year ago, there is still going to be a good-sized crop out there."
The crop has been "hard to get a read on" this year, said Maurice Cameron of Trinity Fruit Sales Co. in Fresno, CA. He said that he expects to be "short on a lot of the early nectarines because of the frost. But as we get into June, we will have plenty of fruit."
For SunWest Fruit Co. in Parlier, on the other hand, "nectarines from July on could be a little lighter than last year," according to SunWest's Dean Thonesen. For most early fruit, he said, "I think we are in pretty decent shape." Peaches appear to have potentially the same crop as last year," he said. With plums, also, "we see a crop similar to last year." It is a light crop, he said, but "last year was light as well."
SunWest's Doug Sankey summed up the situation quite well not only for the company but for the industry in general when he said that even with "all of the [weather] conditions we've been through, at this point we see overall pretty decent crops."
(For more on the Calfiornia summer fruit deal, see the May 8 issue of The Produce News.)
But when the estimating committees met a day prior to the California Tree Fruit Agreement spring meetings April 27, they honed in on a combined crop estimate just under 50 million boxes, similar to each of the last two years and scarcely more than 10 percent below the 55 or 56 million boxes that CTFA's Field Director Dale Janzen said would be considered a full crop for existing acreage.
All varieties are expected to be two weeks later than last year, however.
The 2006 estimate, 49.334 million boxes, is just slightly under last year's actual shipments of 50.867 million boxes and the previous year's 50.9 million boxes. It consists of 20.242 million boxes of peaches, virtually unchanged from last year's 20.177; 17.824 million boxes of nectarines, just under last year's 18.618; and 11.268 million boxes of plums, down slightly from last year's 12.072.
The largest combined California peach, nectarine and plum crop on record was 59.6 million boxes in 2002, a year that also saw a record nectarine crop of 23.3 million boxes. The smallest in the last 10 years was 48.4 million boxes in 1998, a year in which nectarines hit their lowest point in the last decade at 16.9 million packages.
Peaches peaked at 22.5 million packages in 2003 and have not dropped under 20 million since 1998.
Plums have been the most volatile, ranging over the last 10 years from 17.3 million packages in 1997 to a low of 10.3 million packages in 2004.
California plum acreage has declined during the last decade from 42,600 bearing acres in 1996 to 36,000 bearing acres in 2005, according to the California Agricultural Statistics Service. Peach acreage reached a high of 39,000 bearing acres in 2000 and declined to 36,000 acres in 2005. Nectarine acreage has held steady at 36,000 over the last decade.
This year, an array of weather factors affected the crop. A warm winter resulted in low chill hours. That was followed by a cold spring and week after week of rain, during bloom season and beyond. Frost damage and hail damage were both widespread. As one grower put it, "everything that could go wrong has gone wrong."
But remarkably, on average, things had not gone nearly as wrong as it first appeared. As growers got out into their orchards to assess hail and frost damage and other effects of weather, pessimism transformed in many cases to cautious optimism. Yes, the damage was widespread, but in many cases it was not extensive. The various weather factors had served merely to thin out the crop, not destroy it.
Once the rains let up enough that thinning crews could get into the orchards, they found in many cases that there was sufficient good young fruit on the trees for a full crop or nearly so. Some orchards were more severely affected, and a few were devastated, but others remained almost unscathed and have heavy sets.
The Produce News accompanied Mr. Janzen into several orchards in the Reedley, CA, area April 21, as he was assessing the crop's potential. Looking at the trees, he said that in spite of cold temperatures, "lots of rain" and "some pretty good bouts of hail ... we're going to have a decent crop," although not a huge crop.
In one orchard of Snow Angel white peaches, for example, frost and hail damage were both evident, and yet, he said, "There is still plenty of fruit ... to get a crop. It sure does look promising. Look at the vitality of those trees. [Even] after sustaining some frost damage, [they don't] look like [they are] suffering."
Some low-lying areas had more frost damage, "but for the most part we came out pretty well," he said.
Many orchards showed a wide variation in maturity. The trees did not all bloom at the same time, and even on an individual tree, the bloom period was often spread out, so that fruit set at different times. "Where you may usually pick an orchard in a week-and-a- half period, maybe picking three times, this year you are probably going to pick that orchard over three weeks, maybe having to pick four or five times," Mr. Janzen said. That will increase harvesting costs.
"The thinning has just started because of the amount of rain we have had," said Bill Schene of D.J. Forry Co. in Reedley April 19. "It's just too early to tell for us right now. We are hoping it is going to be a normal crop of course - volume and size and everything. Everything is real sporadic. Within a radius mile, you can have some trees with a heavy crop, and the same variety down the road with a light crop."
"There are some blocks are light, some that are heavy," said Mike Garrison of Summeripe Worldwide Inc. in Dinuba. As crews are going through thinning the orchards, they are finding that hail damage "wasn't as bad as anticipated."
"I think that the significant issue that we have had to deal with [this season] is the weather," said Pat Ricchiuti of P-R Farms in Clovis. Cool, wet weather has delayed maturity and the extended bloom period "is going to cause a problem with harvesting because you will probably have to harvest many more times to get that fruit."
"There is no doubt that the growing conditions over the past six months have been anything but ideal. There have just been a lot of problems," said Mike Aiton of Sun World, headquartered in Bakersfield. "The trees have been battered and bruised and confused, and we are really just now beginning to understand what damage has been done and to assess the size of the crop out there." But although "it has been a difficult growing season, he said, "these trees seem to be fairly resilient. We feel fairly confident that although our volume is going to be down from a year ago, there is still going to be a good-sized crop out there."
The crop has been "hard to get a read on" this year, said Maurice Cameron of Trinity Fruit Sales Co. in Fresno, CA. He said that he expects to be "short on a lot of the early nectarines because of the frost. But as we get into June, we will have plenty of fruit."
For SunWest Fruit Co. in Parlier, on the other hand, "nectarines from July on could be a little lighter than last year," according to SunWest's Dean Thonesen. For most early fruit, he said, "I think we are in pretty decent shape." Peaches appear to have potentially the same crop as last year," he said. With plums, also, "we see a crop similar to last year." It is a light crop, he said, but "last year was light as well."
SunWest's Doug Sankey summed up the situation quite well not only for the company but for the industry in general when he said that even with "all of the [weather] conditions we've been through, at this point we see overall pretty decent crops."
(For more on the Calfiornia summer fruit deal, see the May 8 issue of The Produce News.)
