Rare September storm could be precursor for things to come in California
Rare September storm could be precursor for things to come in California
California farmers and homeowners alike have suffered through four years of the worst drought in history by some measures. There are very strong indications that will change this year with the El Niño conditions strengthening in sub-tropical Pacific Ocean. Early Tuesday morning, Sept. 15, Southern California was reminded what that might feel like as rains pelted Los Angeles for about 10 hours bringing flooding and traffic snarls throughout the area.
About two inches of rain fell in Los Angeles overnight Sept. 14, making it the wettest day of 2015 and also the wettest September day in more than 30 years. By 9 a.m. Sept. 15, 1.78 inches of rain had fallen at Los Angeles International Airport. Just this one day of rain had already made this month the third wettest September in the city’s history.
It’s very rare indeed for Southern California to experience a significant September storm, with heat waves reaching 100 degrees much more common in September.
Other areas of Southern California also had record rainfall. In most instances, the rain is a welcome sight, but flooding is not the way people want to see the drought end. Though no one is claiming that this one storm can be directly tied to the El Niño conditions, there is a connection. When the El Niño conditions exists, which basically mean significant above-average water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, those same warm ocean waters have been accompanied by increased tropical activity in the Pacific region.
Specifically, the Sept. 15 rain is a remnant of Hurricane Linda, which formed in the eastern tropical Pacific. It is the 11th tropical storm from that region so for this year, which is two greater than the average for the previous 30 years.
Recently, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center revealed that there is now a 95 percent chance that El Niño will continue through the winter, which is when California would typically see its share of the rainfall caused by this environmental condition.
There have been six years since 1958 with similar El Niño conditions at this time of year. In each of those years Southern California received above-average rainfall. In three of those years, the entire state also experienced above-average rainfall, but in the other three years, some areas in the northern half of the state remained relatively dry.
Mike Anderson, the California state climatologist, said it is too early to predict just how this El Niño will play out, but he acknowledged that it has always delivered a wet punch to Southern California.
The California Department of Water Resources would like to see a steady influx of storms that somewhat gently blanket the state with rainfall that the reservoirs and the ground can handle. But Mother Nature hasn’t been that nice during previous El Niño years.
Anderson said California’s mantra has been to “hope for the best and plan for the worst.” For the last four years that has meant planning for continued drought conditions with conservation measures and water delivery cutbacks. This year that state agency has to also plan for the flooding that has typically accompanied the heavy El Niño storms.
For the most part, the state’s wettest months come in the January-to-March time frame, but last year December was particularly wet and the different El Niño years have not resulted in a typical pattern. Every year is different, Anderson said.
This mid-September Southern California rain, which was also expected to drift northward as the week progressed, was met with glee for the most part. From San Diego through Ventura counties, there was significant rain. The Oxnard area reported a little more than an inch of rain. It came in less than 10 hours so it did create some muddy fields and delayed harvesting for several hours, but no major damage was reported to crops.
California can use many more of these storms over the next six to seven months, though it would be preferable if the deluges were spread out a bit.