Mexico's 2007 mango imports expected to peak during July
Mexico's 2007 mango imports expected to peak during July
Although June is typically the heaviest production period for Mexican mangos, U.S. distributors said that the peak of the season will most likely come in July as the Nayarit and Sinaloa production areas are a couple of weeks later than usual.
An accurate forecast on mangos is always a moving target as there are so many districts and so many varieties, each importer has his own view of the crop which can be vastly different from his competitor, but no less accurate. Helping to sort this out is the new National Mango Board web site (www.mango.org), which does offer crop forecasting. However, even those numbers are bit difficult to decipher because they rely heavily on historical data to predict future production. When it comes to production, history is of course a factor but not nearly as powerful as Mother Nature.
What seems certain is that supplies of red mangos will be light in June (Tommy Atkins, Hadens, Kents, Keitts) with the yellow varieties (Ataulfo) carrying the load.
"Right now we are in a gap for reds [red mango varieties]," said Jesus (Chuy) Loza of Freska International in Ventura, CA. "It should continue to be tight the first three weeks of June."
Besides being late, Mr. Loza said the fruit is also small, with the Ataulfo crop peaking on sizes in the teens. The Tommy Atkins variety is larger, peaking on the 8-10 sizes.
Rodrigo Diaz of Diazteca Co. in Nogales, AZ, agreed with the volume outlook. "The peak is going to be in July," he said. "We are going to need lots of promotion in July."
He said that the July volume will consist of Tommy Atkins, Kents and Keitts. Kents and Keitt will carry the volume through much of August with Keitts surviving a bit later in the season. The Kents and Keitts typically produce larger fruit and Mr. Diaz said he expects that to be the case again this year with a good offering of fruit as large as 4s, 5s and 6s.
Rick Burkett, a salesman at Farmers Best in Nogales, said the lighter supplies have created a stronger market than last year. "Volume should start to increase by mid-June and be heavy through July as Sinaloa starts shipping."
Like others, he said that he expects the market to start to fall off when the heavy volume begins. In the summer months, he said Nogales does not have much else to sell so most of the mango sales tend to be straight loads, which gives the buyer some leverage in driving the price down a bit.
Bill Vogel, president of Tavilla Sales Co. in Los Angeles, said that his Sinaloa suppliers are 10 days behind normal.
"Southern Sinaloa would typically start on June 15, but we are not starting until June 25 this year. June is going to be short," Mr. Vogel said on the last day of May. "But the good news is that there will be good supplies for the Fourth of July," he added.
Chris Ciruli of Ciruli Bros. in Nogales is predominantly a yellow mango shipper with the firm's proprietary Champagne mango, which is in the Ataulfo family. "Reds are short but we have very good volume and we are moving into our heavy shipping period over the next four weeks," he said June 1.
Mr. Ciruli said the industry should be importing about 1.5 million cartons of mangos per week in early June, climbing to 1.8 million per week by the end of the month. In early June, crossing figures showed that about 70 percent of the volume was in the yellow varieties. He said volume over one million cartons per week is considered to be very promotable with the peak shipping weeks during the year topping two million cartons.
Mr. Ciruli predicted that there would be greater than two-million-carton weeks during July, with the red varieties carrying the load. He said shipments of yellow varieties will taper off after the Fourth of July. "We should go until at least July 14 and then the weather will determine how long we last. When we don't have any rain, we've gone well into August" with the Champagne mangos, he said.
Mr. Ciruli said that the smaller-structured Champagne mangos were peaking on sizes between 18 and 22 mangos per 10-pound carton.
In late May, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service said that Mexico's early season mango production was delayed three to four weeks because of cold weather and heavy rains. While the later season areas are not that far behind, there is still a significant amount of delay, the USDA said.
What many of the importers seemed most concerned about is that U.S. retail promotions will coincide with the late heavy volumes. Some worried that the stronger late-May/early-June f.o.b. price will curtail promotions once the heavy volume begins. Of a half-dozen distributors interviewed, four specifically mentioned that they were giving retailers attractive pricing lids as much as a month out to stimulate promotion.
U.S. mango importers seemingly operate a volume business as f.o.b. prices are often around or below $3 per carton and can drop below $2 per carton during the heaviest shipping weeks.
"It's a tough business," agreed John-Campbell Barmmer of Chestnut Hill Farms in Miami, who said that the cost of a carton of mangos can fall below the raw cost of the carton at some points during the season.
Even in the midst of short supplies in late May, the f.o.b. price on an average carton of mangos was only around $4. Early season fruit fared much better as the market hovered near double digits in March.
(For more on the Mexican mango deal, see the June 4 issue of The Produce News.)
An accurate forecast on mangos is always a moving target as there are so many districts and so many varieties, each importer has his own view of the crop which can be vastly different from his competitor, but no less accurate. Helping to sort this out is the new National Mango Board web site (www.mango.org), which does offer crop forecasting. However, even those numbers are bit difficult to decipher because they rely heavily on historical data to predict future production. When it comes to production, history is of course a factor but not nearly as powerful as Mother Nature.
What seems certain is that supplies of red mangos will be light in June (Tommy Atkins, Hadens, Kents, Keitts) with the yellow varieties (Ataulfo) carrying the load.
"Right now we are in a gap for reds [red mango varieties]," said Jesus (Chuy) Loza of Freska International in Ventura, CA. "It should continue to be tight the first three weeks of June."
Besides being late, Mr. Loza said the fruit is also small, with the Ataulfo crop peaking on sizes in the teens. The Tommy Atkins variety is larger, peaking on the 8-10 sizes.
Rodrigo Diaz of Diazteca Co. in Nogales, AZ, agreed with the volume outlook. "The peak is going to be in July," he said. "We are going to need lots of promotion in July."
He said that the July volume will consist of Tommy Atkins, Kents and Keitts. Kents and Keitt will carry the volume through much of August with Keitts surviving a bit later in the season. The Kents and Keitts typically produce larger fruit and Mr. Diaz said he expects that to be the case again this year with a good offering of fruit as large as 4s, 5s and 6s.
Rick Burkett, a salesman at Farmers Best in Nogales, said the lighter supplies have created a stronger market than last year. "Volume should start to increase by mid-June and be heavy through July as Sinaloa starts shipping."
Like others, he said that he expects the market to start to fall off when the heavy volume begins. In the summer months, he said Nogales does not have much else to sell so most of the mango sales tend to be straight loads, which gives the buyer some leverage in driving the price down a bit.
Bill Vogel, president of Tavilla Sales Co. in Los Angeles, said that his Sinaloa suppliers are 10 days behind normal.
"Southern Sinaloa would typically start on June 15, but we are not starting until June 25 this year. June is going to be short," Mr. Vogel said on the last day of May. "But the good news is that there will be good supplies for the Fourth of July," he added.
Chris Ciruli of Ciruli Bros. in Nogales is predominantly a yellow mango shipper with the firm's proprietary Champagne mango, which is in the Ataulfo family. "Reds are short but we have very good volume and we are moving into our heavy shipping period over the next four weeks," he said June 1.
Mr. Ciruli said the industry should be importing about 1.5 million cartons of mangos per week in early June, climbing to 1.8 million per week by the end of the month. In early June, crossing figures showed that about 70 percent of the volume was in the yellow varieties. He said volume over one million cartons per week is considered to be very promotable with the peak shipping weeks during the year topping two million cartons.
Mr. Ciruli predicted that there would be greater than two-million-carton weeks during July, with the red varieties carrying the load. He said shipments of yellow varieties will taper off after the Fourth of July. "We should go until at least July 14 and then the weather will determine how long we last. When we don't have any rain, we've gone well into August" with the Champagne mangos, he said.
Mr. Ciruli said that the smaller-structured Champagne mangos were peaking on sizes between 18 and 22 mangos per 10-pound carton.
In late May, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service said that Mexico's early season mango production was delayed three to four weeks because of cold weather and heavy rains. While the later season areas are not that far behind, there is still a significant amount of delay, the USDA said.
What many of the importers seemed most concerned about is that U.S. retail promotions will coincide with the late heavy volumes. Some worried that the stronger late-May/early-June f.o.b. price will curtail promotions once the heavy volume begins. Of a half-dozen distributors interviewed, four specifically mentioned that they were giving retailers attractive pricing lids as much as a month out to stimulate promotion.
U.S. mango importers seemingly operate a volume business as f.o.b. prices are often around or below $3 per carton and can drop below $2 per carton during the heaviest shipping weeks.
"It's a tough business," agreed John-Campbell Barmmer of Chestnut Hill Farms in Miami, who said that the cost of a carton of mangos can fall below the raw cost of the carton at some points during the season.
Even in the midst of short supplies in late May, the f.o.b. price on an average carton of mangos was only around $4. Early season fruit fared much better as the market hovered near double digits in March.
(For more on the Mexican mango deal, see the June 4 issue of The Produce News.)
