Global economic factors discussed at Fresh Summit
Global economic factors discussed at Fresh Summit
ATLANTA -- The U.S. market will continue to be a flourishing consumer market because of ongoing immigration and because baby boomers are having two children per couple, creating an "echo boom," according to Jeffrey Rosensweig, associate dean and director of the global perspectives program at Goizueta Business School at Emory University, here.
Asia, notably Japan, and Europe, will slow in population growth because many couples are having one child, he said. Markets in China and India will remain emerging markets.
While Australia, Canada and the Netherlands have relatively small populations, those countries are highly productive per capita, the Emory professor noted. Except for South Africa, the outlook for Africa is dim, with a billion people and very little economic development.
Chile has enjoyed "tremendous success," which is becoming contagious in Latin America, Dr. Rosensweig continued. Russia's economy "will grow very fast because of oil and natural gas" resources. While Japan's population growth is slowing, the economy is growing again, with the Japanese stock market hitting a multi-year high on Nov. 4.
"Mexico has a wonderful future," Dr. Rosensweig said. "People are fixated on India and China, but Mexico has a very young population, but is no longer overwhelmed by young people."
Dr. Rosensweig, with Australian Deborah Perkins, executive director of food and agribusiness research at Rabobank International in New York, were the lead speakers at a Saturday morning, Nov. 6 session of the Produce Marketing Association's just-completed convention. Moderating the session titled "Economic Influences on the Global Produce Market" was Kevin Moffitt, president and chief executive officer of the Pear Bureau Northwest in Portland, OR.
The speakers were followed with comments from panelists John Shelford, president of Global Berry Farms LLC in Naples, FL; Francisco Obregon, president of Obregon & Associates Inc. in Nogales, AZ; Rob Robson, CEO of One Harvest in Carole Park, Queensland, Australia; Roger Manning, CEO of Inter-Trade International in London; and Jeffrey Jackson, vice president and managing director of Asia-Pacific business operations for Chiquita Brands International in Cincinnati.
Ms. Perkins indicated that the consumption of fresh produce will continue to rise, led by the fresh-cut produce to reduce meal preparation time. She said that produce will remain a key point of differentiation within grocers' fierce competitive markets.
Ms. Perkins said that China exports only 2 percent of the vegetables it produces. Vegetables are a key part of the domestic Chinese diet, and if Chinese vegetable production increases any more, that production will be going onto the world market. Fruit consumption will rise in China as household income rises there. This will bring increased opportunities for the United States, Australia and New Zealand to ship fruit to China.
Mr. Manning said, "We have to put on muddy shoes and look for other markets." Oversupplied markets are favoring buyers and "how much added value can you create?"
Mr. Obregon noted that there will be many marketing opportunities in Mexico, "where a growing middle class needs better product quality. Supermarkets are growing." Wal-Mart is "suddenly number one" among Mexican retailers. Among suppliers with a bright future in Mexico is Chile.
Chiquita's Mr. Jackson said that banana companies have faced increases in steamship fuel costs, going to $330 per metric ton this year from $190. While the details are as yet incomplete, he prefers Europe's move to tariff-only restrictions to the licenses that have been in place since 1993.
Global Berry's Mr. Shelford said that health concerns in North America, combined with plenty of good nutritional news, have been very good for his business. High fuel costs are accelerating the move of Chile's more perishable berry business to Mexican farms, he added, and in five years, only blueberries will be shipped from Chile.
Mr. Robson said that Australia's produce industry is rapidly consolidating. There are now 4,300 horticultural producers in Australia, but by 2015 that number is expected to drop to 900. Suppliers must increase their efficiency as they compete for sales with supermarket buyers. Also, he said that the suppliers "have to say 'no' when people are not making money." Suppliers must become tougher negotiators while asking retailers to reduce their margins, he said.
Asia, notably Japan, and Europe, will slow in population growth because many couples are having one child, he said. Markets in China and India will remain emerging markets.
While Australia, Canada and the Netherlands have relatively small populations, those countries are highly productive per capita, the Emory professor noted. Except for South Africa, the outlook for Africa is dim, with a billion people and very little economic development.
Chile has enjoyed "tremendous success," which is becoming contagious in Latin America, Dr. Rosensweig continued. Russia's economy "will grow very fast because of oil and natural gas" resources. While Japan's population growth is slowing, the economy is growing again, with the Japanese stock market hitting a multi-year high on Nov. 4.
"Mexico has a wonderful future," Dr. Rosensweig said. "People are fixated on India and China, but Mexico has a very young population, but is no longer overwhelmed by young people."
Dr. Rosensweig, with Australian Deborah Perkins, executive director of food and agribusiness research at Rabobank International in New York, were the lead speakers at a Saturday morning, Nov. 6 session of the Produce Marketing Association's just-completed convention. Moderating the session titled "Economic Influences on the Global Produce Market" was Kevin Moffitt, president and chief executive officer of the Pear Bureau Northwest in Portland, OR.
The speakers were followed with comments from panelists John Shelford, president of Global Berry Farms LLC in Naples, FL; Francisco Obregon, president of Obregon & Associates Inc. in Nogales, AZ; Rob Robson, CEO of One Harvest in Carole Park, Queensland, Australia; Roger Manning, CEO of Inter-Trade International in London; and Jeffrey Jackson, vice president and managing director of Asia-Pacific business operations for Chiquita Brands International in Cincinnati.
Ms. Perkins indicated that the consumption of fresh produce will continue to rise, led by the fresh-cut produce to reduce meal preparation time. She said that produce will remain a key point of differentiation within grocers' fierce competitive markets.
Ms. Perkins said that China exports only 2 percent of the vegetables it produces. Vegetables are a key part of the domestic Chinese diet, and if Chinese vegetable production increases any more, that production will be going onto the world market. Fruit consumption will rise in China as household income rises there. This will bring increased opportunities for the United States, Australia and New Zealand to ship fruit to China.
Mr. Manning said, "We have to put on muddy shoes and look for other markets." Oversupplied markets are favoring buyers and "how much added value can you create?"
Mr. Obregon noted that there will be many marketing opportunities in Mexico, "where a growing middle class needs better product quality. Supermarkets are growing." Wal-Mart is "suddenly number one" among Mexican retailers. Among suppliers with a bright future in Mexico is Chile.
Chiquita's Mr. Jackson said that banana companies have faced increases in steamship fuel costs, going to $330 per metric ton this year from $190. While the details are as yet incomplete, he prefers Europe's move to tariff-only restrictions to the licenses that have been in place since 1993.
Global Berry's Mr. Shelford said that health concerns in North America, combined with plenty of good nutritional news, have been very good for his business. High fuel costs are accelerating the move of Chile's more perishable berry business to Mexican farms, he added, and in five years, only blueberries will be shipped from Chile.
Mr. Robson said that Australia's produce industry is rapidly consolidating. There are now 4,300 horticultural producers in Australia, but by 2015 that number is expected to drop to 900. Suppliers must increase their efficiency as they compete for sales with supermarket buyers. Also, he said that the suppliers "have to say 'no' when people are not making money." Suppliers must become tougher negotiators while asking retailers to reduce their margins, he said.
