Damage to California avocados not as severe as expected
Damage to California avocados not as severe as expected
Widespread wildfires and even more widespread fierce Santa Ana winds in Southern California early in the week of Oct. 21 caused damage -- in some cases severe damage -- to thousands of acres of avocados and other crops. But the scope of the damage to the state's total avocado crop is now believed to be less than some in the industry initially feared and much lower than some early news reports indicated.
"Clearly, individual growers have suffered some devastating losses, and we probably have around 4,000 acres that suffered anything from superficial scorching of the foliage all the way to complete grove destruction," Guy Witney, director of industry affairs for the California Avocado Commission, told The Produce News.
Most of the fire damage was in San Diego County. In addition, there were varying degrees of damage in many avocado orchards unaffected by the fires, in all growing districts, as high winds blew fruit off the trees.
While it will be weeks yet before the actual extent of the damage is fully assessed, Mr. Witney said it now appears that the total crop loss from wind and fire combined will be around 40 million pounds. Before the fires, California was expected to produce about 365 million pounds of avocados during the 2007-08 crop year.
"I would say overall 10 percent of the crop was either lost as a result of direct burn damage to orchards or was stripped from trees by the winds," Mr. Witney said. The damage occurred "all the way from San Luis Obispo County to San Diego County."
That 10 percent figure is considerably below some early predictions that as much as 30 percent of the crop might have been lost. There are still some in the industry who believe that the overall crop loss, statewide, will prove to be considerably higher than 10 percent.
But as growers and farm managers were able to get back into the groves following the fires, many of them were relieved to discover that the damage was less extensive than anticipated.
In many cases, the groves were damaged only along the edges and, in fact, were found to have acted as a firebreak.
"When [the fires] approached orchards at a rapid rate with a lot of fuel behind them, they certainly could do some severe damage to orchards," Mr. Witney said. "But for the most part, the orchards stopped the fire in its tracks. Under the circumstances, the damage is less than a lot of experts were predicting in the early stages of the fire."
Over the next several weeks, the commission will undertake a grower survey to assess the damage more accurately and formulate a new crop estimate for the coming season. "I am going to recommend to our board that we do an aerial survey as well," Mr. Witney said.
The loss of 40 million pounds of California avocados will not significantly affect the total amount of fruit in the U.S. market, he noted. With fruit "coming into the market from Mexico, Chile" and from other off-shore sources in addition to the California crop, there will be a continuous 12- month supply of avocados in the market. In all, about a billion pounds of avocados are expected to be on the market over the course of the year.
"I am not doubting that worldwide, negative effects by natural phenomena" have had an effect on global production, Mr. Witney added.
California's 2007-08 crop (as well as the remainder of the 2006-07 crop) was diminished by a freeze in January. Chile's current crop was reduced by a freeze in July. South Africa, New Zealand, Australia and other growing areas have also experienced weather factors affecting their crops. "Just about every [avocado-growing country] has been impacted except Mexico," he said.
Mexico is, therefore, the country that is best positioned to take up the slack left by California's reduced crop.
Prior to the recent fire and wind damage, California's anticipated 2007-08 avocado crop size was already significantly below the record 600 million pound harvest of two years ago. It will now be even smaller, but just how much smaller remains to be seen.
"We'll know more in the coming weeks," Mr. Witney said. "The commission will issue an updated crop estimate once all the information is in."
One of the problems caused by the fires in addition to direct damage to the trees was damage to PVC irrigation systems in the groves. That was a matter of great concern to growers who needed to get the systems repaired and the water back on the trees as soon as possible after the fire to prevent them from dropping fruit due to drought stress.
"There were a lot of irrigation systems that were damaged," Mr. Witney said. With the extent of repairs that needed to be done, he had concerns that there may be a shortage of piping and other irrigation supplies needed to complete the repairs. Fortunately, "so far I have heard no reports of shortages," he said.
"What I am seeing is people in the communities coming together and helping each other," he said. In places, one side of a road will look like "a firebomb hit it" and the other side will be "almost untouched, "and you've got neighbor helping neighbor," he said. "With that sort of spirit, I think we will get things fixed up before we start seeing a lot of crop losses as a result of lack of irrigation."
"Clearly, individual growers have suffered some devastating losses, and we probably have around 4,000 acres that suffered anything from superficial scorching of the foliage all the way to complete grove destruction," Guy Witney, director of industry affairs for the California Avocado Commission, told The Produce News.
Most of the fire damage was in San Diego County. In addition, there were varying degrees of damage in many avocado orchards unaffected by the fires, in all growing districts, as high winds blew fruit off the trees.
While it will be weeks yet before the actual extent of the damage is fully assessed, Mr. Witney said it now appears that the total crop loss from wind and fire combined will be around 40 million pounds. Before the fires, California was expected to produce about 365 million pounds of avocados during the 2007-08 crop year.
"I would say overall 10 percent of the crop was either lost as a result of direct burn damage to orchards or was stripped from trees by the winds," Mr. Witney said. The damage occurred "all the way from San Luis Obispo County to San Diego County."
That 10 percent figure is considerably below some early predictions that as much as 30 percent of the crop might have been lost. There are still some in the industry who believe that the overall crop loss, statewide, will prove to be considerably higher than 10 percent.
But as growers and farm managers were able to get back into the groves following the fires, many of them were relieved to discover that the damage was less extensive than anticipated.
In many cases, the groves were damaged only along the edges and, in fact, were found to have acted as a firebreak.
"When [the fires] approached orchards at a rapid rate with a lot of fuel behind them, they certainly could do some severe damage to orchards," Mr. Witney said. "But for the most part, the orchards stopped the fire in its tracks. Under the circumstances, the damage is less than a lot of experts were predicting in the early stages of the fire."
Over the next several weeks, the commission will undertake a grower survey to assess the damage more accurately and formulate a new crop estimate for the coming season. "I am going to recommend to our board that we do an aerial survey as well," Mr. Witney said.
The loss of 40 million pounds of California avocados will not significantly affect the total amount of fruit in the U.S. market, he noted. With fruit "coming into the market from Mexico, Chile" and from other off-shore sources in addition to the California crop, there will be a continuous 12- month supply of avocados in the market. In all, about a billion pounds of avocados are expected to be on the market over the course of the year.
"I am not doubting that worldwide, negative effects by natural phenomena" have had an effect on global production, Mr. Witney added.
California's 2007-08 crop (as well as the remainder of the 2006-07 crop) was diminished by a freeze in January. Chile's current crop was reduced by a freeze in July. South Africa, New Zealand, Australia and other growing areas have also experienced weather factors affecting their crops. "Just about every [avocado-growing country] has been impacted except Mexico," he said.
Mexico is, therefore, the country that is best positioned to take up the slack left by California's reduced crop.
Prior to the recent fire and wind damage, California's anticipated 2007-08 avocado crop size was already significantly below the record 600 million pound harvest of two years ago. It will now be even smaller, but just how much smaller remains to be seen.
"We'll know more in the coming weeks," Mr. Witney said. "The commission will issue an updated crop estimate once all the information is in."
One of the problems caused by the fires in addition to direct damage to the trees was damage to PVC irrigation systems in the groves. That was a matter of great concern to growers who needed to get the systems repaired and the water back on the trees as soon as possible after the fire to prevent them from dropping fruit due to drought stress.
"There were a lot of irrigation systems that were damaged," Mr. Witney said. With the extent of repairs that needed to be done, he had concerns that there may be a shortage of piping and other irrigation supplies needed to complete the repairs. Fortunately, "so far I have heard no reports of shortages," he said.
"What I am seeing is people in the communities coming together and helping each other," he said. In places, one side of a road will look like "a firebomb hit it" and the other side will be "almost untouched, "and you've got neighbor helping neighbor," he said. "With that sort of spirit, I think we will get things fixed up before we start seeing a lot of crop losses as a result of lack of irrigation."
