Calif. Navel crop up from last year
Calif. Navel crop up from last year
California's upcoming Navel crop is expected to be 86 million 40 pound cartons, according to the CASS 2015-16 California Navel Orange Objective Measurement Report released Sept. 11. Of those cartons, 83 million are projected to be produced in the three-county Central Valley region comprising District 1 and represents an 8.5 percent increase over the 76 million cartons harvested last year.
The varieties forecast in this report include conventional, organic, and specialty Navel oranges.
The Agricultural Statistic Service conducts the crop survey and generates its projections based on random sampling of the number of fruit per tree, fruit size, combined with historical information and then using statistical formulas to produce the estimate. In this year's survey the fruit count per tree in District 1 is 412, up 19 percent from the previous year, and 18.5 percent above the five-year average set of 336 fruit per tree. The average Sept. 1 fruit diameter was 2.248, which is above the five-year average diameter of 2.230. The estimate is calculated on 2,000 fewer acres than last year.
Growers, packinghouse fieldmen and shippers that California Citrus Mutual spoke with generally believed that the crop was at least the same as last year and probably bigger. Fruit size was reported to be larger, and fruit set — especially on late varieties — is better in most groves. The improved fruit size is attributed to timely rainfall and good growing conditions following petal fall last spring. Early rains this fall could result in additional growth that would equate to more cartons.
The external quality is very good and the extended periods of high temperatures this summer have increased Brix, so flavor is expected to be excellent this season. The crop is maturing well, with harvest expected to begin in early October.
CCM said the industry response to the report is that the estimate is a reasonable starting point with the acreage number as the big variable. Thousands of acres have been removed during the current drought. The 2,000-acre reduction used by CASS is probably conservative, in which case the crop will come in below this estimate.
