Largely because of lack of supplies caused by the drought, California has experienced a very good, mature green tomato deal this summer, and longtime observer Joe Bernardi expects an even stronger market in the late summer, early fall period.

“The market is extremely good for California especially in the middle of July,” said the Bernardi & Associates Inc. president on July 21. “And I believe it will continue through August. In September and October, there is the chance that it will be very extraordinary.”

He said there is a combination of factors impacting the market. First and foremost is the California drought. Less acreage was planted and much of the acreage that is in the ground is relying on well water for irrigation. There is nothing like rainwater to maximize production. Well water, especially after three years of drought, is pulling from a very low water table that, in many cases, has a much higher salt content. The end result is less volume.

Bernardi’s prediction of even fewer tomatoes later in the season is the direct result of his observation that there are fewer acres planted for late season harvest. The California mature green tomato crop is planted over many weeks in order to give orderly supplies throughout the year. Some growers just simply ran out of water and didn’t plant their late acreage.

Another factor involved in the strong tomato market is the wet weather across the country. While California is suffering through a drought, many areas — with homegrown tomato deals — were hit hard by rain in June and July. Bernardi ticked off a number of states that have seen much less summer production than usual: “Michigan and Ohio have had a lot of rain. New Jersey only has half of its volume. Virginia is down. Arkansas is already done for the summer.”

Interestingly, rain in the West might further exacerbate the situation several months down the road. For the last three years, California has had very little fall rain so the tomato harvest has lasted well into November. In years where there is a good amount of October rain, the deal is cut short. The general consensus among climatologists is that an El Niño situation does currently exist in the southern Pacific Ocean, which means there is a very strong possibility California will be hit with an unusual amount of late summer and/or early fall rain.

In the meantime, the Baja California vine ripe deal has also been strong, partly because of the lack of mature green tomatoes. Bernardi said that on July 21 vine ripes were about $16 per carton, while Romas were selling for $9-12 depending upon size and mature greens were fetching $10 per carton.

Bernardi said his business was strong but no new wrinkles this year. “We just offer the best service we can. We have hired two new quality control guys and are giving our customers the same good value that they expect from us.”