Whether it was the always-popular California location, the truncated format or normal growth is hard to say, but the 2012 edition of the Produce Marketing Association’s annual meeting, Fresh Summit, attracted what was announced as a record crowd of more than 20,000 attendees.

Speaking at the opening day brunch on Friday morning, Oct. 26, PMA President Bryan Silbermann mentioned the 20,000 number, which had never been reached before.  Later a PMA staffer confirmed the number, and in fact on Monday, Oct. 29, Director of Public Relations Meg Miller said the final figure was a whopping “21,104 to be exact.”

Like a good portion of the attendees, on Monday the PMA staff was “stuck” in Anaheim as Hurricane Sandy prevented many in the eastern third of the United States from getting home.  In fact, the weather was one of the hot topics of the convention as many convention-goers said they planned to cut their stay short to beat the hurricane to their eastern homes.  However, most of those early departure plans were thwarted as flights to the East Coast were cancelled by most of the airlines on Sunday, which was the final day of the convention in the new weekend format.  The main convention hotels continued to have that “convention feel” the day after the event as the lobbies were filled with produce people working on their “smart” phones.

The opening day Friday brunch, which was held in the middle of the one full-day of workshops, featured the presentation of a new and first-ever Robert L. Carey Leadership Award, as well as a panel discussion of what the industry may look like in 2022.  Mike O'Brien, vice president of produce and floral at Schnuck Markets Inc., based in St. Louis, MO, and a recent PMA chairman of the board, was the recipient of the award.  The new annual award was developed to honor an individual who has demonstrated outstanding volunteer leadership skills and an uncommon commitment to helping PMA achieve its goals of advancing the produce industry.  In presenting the award, Mr. Silbermann said Mr. O’Brien epitomized Bob Carey’s legacy.  Mr. Carey spent 38 years at PMA, most of it as the CEO of the organization, building it from near bankruptcy to one of the larger associations in the industry today, and clearly hosting the largest convention.  Bob Carey was a longtime volunteer in industry organizations and served in the U.S. Army Reserves for 28 years.  He retired in 1996. 

Besides citing Mr. O’Brien for his many years of service to PMA, working his way up the volunteer ladder at the association, it was noted that he was co-chair of the most-recent attempt at merging PMA and United Fresh Produce Association.  That 18 month effort did not produce a merger but Mr. O’Brien’s tireless efforts were appreciated nonetheless.

After the award, Mr. Silbermann stayed on the stage for his annual “State of the Industry” address.  He presented his ideas in a different format this year, utilizing a panel of industry folks to project where the industry would be 10 years from now.  The PMA executive made it clear that he anticipates being with the industry, and on a similar stage, 10 years from now to see how the predictions turn out.

The soothsayer experiment might have been well suited for the venue, which was almost in line of sight of Disneyland’s Fantasyland, but, for the most part, the presenters discussed current trends to make their 10 year predictions.

Leslie Sarasin, who is president and CEO of the Food Marketing Institute, took a shot at predicting what supermarkets will look like in 2022.  She said that since the recession of 2008, shoppers have become much more value-oriented.  She called it the “new norm” and predicted it would strengthen throughout the next decade.  She also said that the use of digital technology will continue to evolve and will play a more important role in the shopping experience.

She expects e-commerce to gain more than a toe-hold in the grocery business as more and more shoppers buy their groceries from home.  Predictably, Ms. Sarasin said this will lead to a proliferation of the smaller store formats, currently being championed by several retail organizations.  In fact, she sees somewhat of a return to basics concept where the smaller, specialized retailer is again very important.  

The FMI president said Mom & Pop grocery stores launched the grocery industry almost 100 years ago and they may come back in 2022, replacing the supermarkets and mega-stores that have dominated for the past 50 years.  

Another speaker was Vernon Crowder, who is a vice president and agricultural economist for Rabobank.  Mr. Crowder discussed the growing demand for food as the world population continues to grow and move into the middle class.  While focusing a bit on 2022, he looked even further out and said population growth shows that there will be nine billion people on this planet in 2050, with most of that growth coming in developed countries in urban areas.

While less than 50 percent of the world’s population currently lives in urban areas, by 2050 that number will top 75 percent.  Urbanization tends to bring more income, more services and more refrigerators, he said.  People will have the income and will want to eat a more varied higher-end diet.  That means eating more protein and more fruits and vegetables.

For producers of food, Mr. Crowder said that means improved technology to create greater yields.  He said it also means higher prices for food.

Vic Smith, president of Fresh Innovations LLC, based in Yuma, AZ, stayed with the assignment, as well as anyone and truly relayed the grower-shipper view of the world from a 2022 perspective.  He said the health care crisis of 2013/14 caused by childhood obesity became a huge drain on the country’s resources resulting in America “doing the right thing” and changing its collective life style and eating habits.  Fresh produce consumption grew tremendously as it followed the lead set by the avocado industry to promote increased consumption.

Tongue firmly in cheek, Mr. Smith said that the Produce Rule, promised by the Food Safety Modernization Act of early 2011, was finally released by the Food and Drug Administration in 2017, which helped improve the safety of our food supply for 2022.  He said technology, including breeding at the molecular level, helped growers keep up with demand with increased yields.

The final forward thinker was Elliot Grants, founder of Harvestmark.  The Silicon Valley based executive was asked to look at technological advances that will come over the next decade.  He sees a world where traceability will be virtually invisible but spot on throughout the entire supply chain.  He sees packaging that can increase and enhance the shelf life and flavor experience.  He believes robots will be picking, packing and shipping our products.  He sees vertical farms, greatly increasing production on less land, and he believes a good percentage of these fruits and vegetables will be sold on line via Amazon.com and similar organizations.

But interestingly, Mr. Grant said none of these advances need wait until 2022 to be implemented.  He said all of this technology is available today and could be used tomorrow.