It’s an old-fashioned tale of supply and demand.

In April, California was hit with a freak hail storm that reduced the on-tree crop of peaches, plums and nectarines. Add to that an ongoing thinning of acreage over the past several years and decreased supplies of local summer fruit deals across the country, and demand is outstripping supply this summer for peaches, plums and nectarines.

The f.o.b. price from California on all three fruits has been in the upper teens most of the summer, and that strong showing should continue until the season is over. California peachesA worker tray packing white-flesh peaches at Reedley Farms in Reedley, CA. Volume of fruit this year is less than in previous years, leading to f.o.b. prices in the upper teens this summer. and nectarines should remain in good supply through September while plums will be marketed into October.

Although the elimination of the California marketing orders for the three crops has also eliminated the official crop estimates on a variety-by-variety basis, longtime observers peg the total volume at less than 40 million cartons.

“Most people are saying that it will end up somewhere between 35 million and 40 million,” said Wayne Brandt, president of Brandt Farms Inc. in Reedley, CA.

He said that while there are no official estimates, shippers talk to each other and have sized up the total volume through what he called “verbal estimates.” The total crop has not been under the 40 million-carton level for many, many years, with 50 million-plus carton seasons being the norm.

Doug Sankey, marketing director of Sunwest Fruit Co. Inc. in Parlier, CA, is not lamenting the loss of detailed estimates. He said that without knowing what everyone else has to market, sellers have to look at their own volume and market accordingly, just as they do with every other crop.

“I don’t think that hurts. I think it helps,” he said. “Let the markets do what they are going to do.”

He indicated that in the past, the estimates of what the entire industry was supposed to have played too big a role in the day-to-day marketing. As he surveyed the situation for the rest of the season, Mr. Sankey also expects a strong market to prevail. He said that supplies of peaches from around the rest of the country seem to be light, which is creating a good market for California fruit. Plums and nectarines, which are not grown in large numbers outside of California, continue to have a stable marketing situation, according to the Sunwest executive, who added, “I think that will continue for the balance of the season.”

He said that retailers have given excellent promotional support to the three stone fruits, and consumers have responded. “This year the quality has been good and the taste has been excellent,” he said. “The fruit is eating very well and we have a good Brix (sugar) level.”

Mr. Brandt said that the April hail took its toll, but the pulling out of acreage over the past several years has also taken a permanent bite out of the crop. With the current acreage numbers, he does not believe 50 million cartons is reachable regardless of seasonal weather conditions.

The longtime grower-shipper said that this year’s prices are helping grower-shipper erase some of the red ink that they have experienced in past years. However, he does not believe there will be a significant increase in acreage planted even though supply and demand seem to be in check.

He said growers in the traditional stone fruit regions have other options, including almonds and grape varieties used for raisins. Both those crops offer excellent opportunities for growers buoyed by a weak dollar, which continues to drive the export market for several agricultural commodities, even stone fruit.

“Five years ago I didn’t want any more growers of white-flesh peaches, but now I could use a few more,” he said. “The export demand is very good. Whoever’s controlling that part of our economy should continue to do what they’re doing.”