As we move through the back half of May, the market remains active across several high-volume categories. Cooler coastal weather continues to limit strawberry harvest yields, while avocados and small lemons are facing tightening supply and rising costs. Row crop markets are mixed, with some items improving and others still under pressure from disease and reduced yields.

Avocados are entering a volatile stretch as Mexico’s main crop moves into its final seven weeks. Active grower participation has declined, and many growers are delaying harvests in anticipation of stronger late-season pricing. Field costs have climbed quickly over the past two weeks as packers compete for limited fruit.

APEAM estimates roughly 330 million pounds remain in Michoacán, with about 250 million pounds expected to ship to the U.S. That equates to approximately 36 million pounds per week, well below current U.S. consumption of more than 60 million pounds weekly. California is increasing but only contributing around 13-15 million pounds per week. Expect costs to continue trending higher until Flor Loca and Peru begin adding volume in July. Flexibility on size and country of origin will be important.

Small lemons remain extremely tight. The 140 count and smaller market is elevated due to limited availability and steady demand, with tight supplies expected to continue through June. District One is winding down, while District Two is carrying the majority of domestic supply. The overall size profile is still dominated by 95 count through 115 count fruit, leaving 140 count through 200 count limited. Offshore lemons are expected to begin shipping late June into early July, while Mexican crossings have started in a limited way and should increase over the next three to four weeks.

Row crop supply has improved overall, and temperate weather has helped keep quality strong. Lettuce and broccoli markets are easing, while romaine and green leaf remain active. Romaine continues to see pressure from INSV and high core, which are reducing yields. Green leaf supply is manageable with support from Mexico, but numbers are being watched closely. Broccoli and cauliflower have improved after a tough stretch, with better yields and quality. Celery remains tight, though Oxnard and Santa Maria supply is adequate for expected demand. Spinach, spring mix, and heritage items are in good shape, while arugula is still showing some residual yellowing and mildew pressure but generally remains within spec.

Strawberry supplies remain very light as cool, inconsistent weather continues across the California growing regions. Growers are seeing one or two clear days followed by several days of overcast skies and colder temperatures, limiting harvest yields. A cooling trend is expected again mid-week and will likely continue into next week. Demand remains strong, open market options are limited, and shippers are focusing on contracts and previous commitments. Advance orders are strongly recommended, with possible fill rates and loading delays expected again this week.

Overall, school demand winding down over the next few weeks should help take some pressure off the market, but it will not be enough to fully offset the limited supplies. Planning ahead will remain important, especially where open-market availability is limited.

Joey Piedimonte, sourcing manager at PRO*ACT LLC, leverages over a decade of produce industry experience to lead teams, manage key vendor relationships and simplify complex challenges. He is dedicated to growth, strong partnerships and supporting the agricultural community.