Caution and consistency top of mind for apple sales
Caution and consistency top of mind for apple sales
The U.S. Apple Association forecast the overall 2025-2026 U.S. apple crop at 278.5 million 42-pound bushel boxes, up slightly from the previous season’s 260 million and 3.6 percent higher than the five-year production average.
The association forecast New York to harvest 30.5 million boxes and in range of the state’s 32.6 million average, Michigan to come in around 30 million boxes and Washington to harvest 180 million boxes, up slightly from its 2024-25 figures. So far, these numbers seem to be on track.
In early January, the apple market looked stable, but the economic pressures shaping the broader produce landscape are making 2026 another year where caution and consistency are taking center stage.
For instance, Gabriela D’Arrigo, vice president of marketing for D’Arrigo New York, noted the company is watching the early months unfold carefully, as consumers, customers and wholesalers continue to operate with tighter budgets and a more conservative mindset than years past.
Apple volumes in the total U.S. are up 1.8 percent from last year and dollars are up 2.9 percent, when comparing data between Sept. 1 and Dec. 27. The top 3 apples are down slightly in volume year-over-year with the category’s top apple, Honeycrisp, down 4.5 percent in pounds as the crop came in short of estimates but sold swiftly in the fall. It’s now entering a demand exceeds supply situation.
Brianna Shales, marketing director for the Wenatchee, WA-based Stemilt Growers, noted the company is seeing bulk and bag sales nearly split evenly for fruit with bags making up 46 percent of apple volumes sold and 53 percent in bulk.
“Looking at the core varieties, Honeycrisp is leading the way in volume at 23 percent of the overall category, with Gala trailing behind it at 20 percent,” she said. “Granny Smith is an opportunity for growth as the crop is larger, but the volume sold is down 1 percent from a year ago. Pink Lady has carried great momentum from last year forward into the new crop with volumes up 62 percent across the U.S. with great color this year. It is now the No. 4 apple in the category by volume at 7.4 percent of apple volumes.”
For club apples, Cosmic Crisp is leading as the top variety in the U.S. making up about 44 percent of club apple volumes. It continues to be poised for regular promotion.
“Cosmic Crisp is driving a lot of growth in the category and is one of the few newer apple varieties we’ve seen that has had dollars outpace volumes with 24 percent increase in dollars year-over-year with 18 percent volume increase,” Shales said. “Because of the down Honeycrisp crop last year, we saw that Cosmic Crisp made gains in volume and dollar contribution, maintaining its position as the No. 7 apple in top U.S. varieties but gaining more than 1.5 percent in category volume contribution at 5.9 percent of apple volumes.”
Total U.S. volumes sold grew 52 percent from November 2024 to November 2025, and the store count for Cosmic Crisp also increased from 18,000 in 2023-24 to 21,200 in 2024-25.
