PRO*ACT Crop Update: California Valencia orange forecast
By
Tim Lynch
PRO*ACT Crop Update: California Valencia orange forecast
The California Valencia orange forecast for the 2024-25 season is projected to be down approximately 20 percent from last season. The forecast is the result of the 2024-25 Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey conducted from mid-January to early February in cooperation with the California Department of Food and Agriculture and the USDA.
Three hundred thirty Valencia orange groves were randomly selected proportional to acreage, county, year planted and variety representation in the state, with 301 of these groves being utilized in this survey. The sampled groves were primarily in the top Valencia orange-producing counties of Tulare, Kern, San Diego and Ventura.
Once a grove is chosen, two trees are randomly selected. For each randomly selected tree, its trunk is measured along with all connected branches. The final randomly selected branch, called the terminal branch, is then closely inspected to count all fruit connected to it and all fruit along the path from the trunk to the terminal branch.
Survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of 552, a 4.3 percent increase from the previous year and 1.1 percent below the five-year average of 558. The average March 1 diameter was 2.392 inches, down 1.7 percent from the previous year and down 2.8 percent from the five-year average of 2.461. Overall acreage is at 25,000 acres down from 25,500 acres the prior season. Final estimates project production at 15 million cartons compared to 18.6 million last season.
Light harvests have begun, and as the Navel season quickly winds down around mid-June, Valencias will take over production for the summer and fall.
With over 30 years in the produce industry, Tim Lynch started as an inspector and advanced into quality control and food safety. Beyond work, he's an avid sports fan, relishing in activities like boating, fishing, and diving. Originally from Hollywood, California, Tim attended Cal Poly SLO before making Marina his home since 1994.