Trendspotting: Online grocery's strong start to 2025
Trendspotting: Online grocery's strong start to 2025
The new year brought improved sales for the online grocery market. January 2025 ended with $10 billion in monthly sales, a 16.6 percent increase over January 2024 according to the most recent Brick Meets Click Grocery Shopper Survey, sponsored by Mercatus. Not only were January 2025 sales stronger than last year, it was also the sixth consecutive month of eGrocery sales above $9.5 billion, fueled in large part by the broad and deep discounts on membership and/or subscription programs.
Delivery’s year-over-year growth in January accelerated even faster than the prior month, surging approximately 37 percent to $4.1 billion, as it continued to benefit from the various promotional discounts on memberships and subscriptions that have continued since mid-2024. Delivery posted an exceptionally strong expansion in its monthly active user base (MAUs), strong gains in order frequency, and a nominal increase in average order values (AOVs).
“It’s important to call out that much of delivery’s explosive growth is driven by mass and specifically Walmart,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “The ongoing waves of promotional tactics are having the intended positive impact on frequency and spend, and they are also increasing retention and share of wallet, which will make growth for their rivals more challenging going forward.”
Pickup’s positive YOY growth was muted compared to delivery’s surge. Pickup sales climbed 4 percent versus last year to $4.2 billion, driven entirely by stronger AOVs, which offset a contracted MAU base and a drop in order frequency. The headwinds facing pickup are due largely to the impact of the promotional efforts that are driving demand toward delivery.
Ship-to-home sales jumped 9 percent in January compared to last year to $1.6 billion. Strong expansion of its MAU base and increased order frequency fueled the gains despite a YOY decline in AOV. Ship-to-home continues to benefit to some degree from a suboptimal in-store shopping experience related to certain general merchandise and health and beauty care products being locked up to prevent theft.
Grocery operators, which include both supermarkets and hard discounters, continue to face stiff competition from mass rivals and specifically Walmart as it leverages delivery and its Walmart+ membership program to gain market share. In terms of household monthly penetration, the mass format has consistently served approximately half of all the MAUs during each January since 2022, whereas supermarkets have served one third of MAUs and hard discount under 5 percent of MAUs.
Given that customers’ experiences and expectations continue to evolve, it’s important to understand cross-shopping and repeat intent trends in relation to each other. For cross-shopping, one-third of grocery’s MAU base also completed an order with a mass retailer sometime during January 2025, though this rate was down compared to last year.
“Delivery’s impressive growth has been driven by membership promotions, but shoppers can easily shift platforms depending on which factor matters most to them — price, product or convenience,” said Mark Fairhurst, chief growth marketing officer for Mercatus. “Grocers that prioritize seamless experiences, deliver personalized offers, provide exceptional service, and implement compelling loyalty strategies will be best positioned for sustainable, long-term growth.”
While monthly eGrocery sales climbed significantly during January 2025, up 16.6 percent YOY, overall grocery spending climbed just 2.5 percent versus last year. As a result, eGrocery’s share of total grocery sales rose to 15 percent for January, compared to a year ago.
