More orderly harvest expected for 2005 California stone fruit season
More orderly harvest expected for 2005 California stone fruit season
The 2004 Annual Report of the California Tree Fruit Agreement describes the 2004 California tree fruit season as "one of the worst on record." Even though volume for the year was well below the five-year average, the timing of the harvest "would wreak havoc with supplies.
Excessive spring and early summer heat brought the crop on too fast, and "for the entire first half of the season, fruit volume on average was 60 percent above normal.
According to CTFA President Blair Richardson, from a weather standpoint 2005 has been, so far, "almost the exact opposite of last year, cool and rainy as opposed to hot and dry.
A larger crop is expected than was marketed last year, but it is still modest in size, possibly the third smallest in a decade, he said. There will be enough fruit to market and promote, but not an overabundance.
Significantly, it appears that the harvest will be spread out this year, with varieties coming off in a more normal and orderly manner, rather than one on top of the other as occurred last year.
The estimated total fresh market volume for California peaches, plums and nectarines is about 53.7 million packages, although Mr. Richardson said he expects that number to be adjusted as the season progresses, largely depending on what type of weather may lie ahead.
The 53.7 million-package estimate for 2005 compares with actual shipments of 50.8 million packages in 2004, 58.6 million packages in 2003, a record 59.3 million packages in 2002 and a five-year average of 56.5 million packages.
Peaches are estimated at about 21.2 million packages, up from last year's 20.6 million but below the 22.5 million box crop of the year before.
Nectarines are estimated at about 20.7 million packages, up from last year's 19.9 million but below the 21.6 million box crop of the year before.
Plums are estimated at about 11.9 million boxes, up from 10.3 million last year but below the 14.9 million-box crop of the year before.
According to Mr. Richardson, the expected potential under normal conditions for the combined peach, plum and nectarine crop in California, given current acreage, is around 58 million to 59 million boxes. That is down from the 61 million to 62 million boxes that would have been considered a full crop a few years before, and the reason is a reduction in acreage.
This year's peach estimate is about five percent below what would be considered a full crop. The nectarine estimate is about seven percent short of a full crop. Plums, which have an erratic set, will be light for the second year in a row, with the crop estimated at 20 percent less than a full crop.
Many shippers said that they expect close to a full crop of peaches and nectarines on the earlier varieties, with a little lighter production from about mid-season on.
One problem with the 2004 crop was that the heat accelerated maturity so rapidly that the fruit, particularly on the earlier varieties, did not have time to size normally, putting an overabundance of smaller-sized fruit into the market.
Better fruit sizing is expected this year. The cooler weather is giving the fruit more time to size, growers said.
Harvest dates are expected to be a few days earlier than normal but a few days later than last year, which was exceptionally early.
"Right now, what we are seeing is we are going to be approximately five days later than last year, and last year we were, give or take, 10 days early, Dave Dever of Ballantine Produce said on April 22. The company expected to start its first peach variety, Earlitreat, on April 25.
"We have found nothing that gives us any indication quality will be a problem this year, Mr. Dever said. One good point about the 2004 crop was that the fruit generally had "good eating characteristics, noted Tim Dayka of Pacific Trellis Fruit. "I think last year, the quality of the fruit was exceptional. In that regard, and in overall crop size as well, he said that he expects the current season "to be quite similar to the year 2004.
"I think the crop is going to be about five days later than last year, which is good. We are hoping for a more orderly harvest, said Mike Thurlow of Mountain View Fruit Sales.
"Last year was extremely hot at this exact same time, and it pushed the fruit a little too quick. We weren't able to get the size we wanted. I think that is one reason last year's crop was a little bit tougher to move than most, Mr. Thurlow said.
This year, "we've got perfect weather, with ample chill hours, he said. Some late season varieties "look to be a little bit light, but I think that means we may just be thinning less and getting better size. I look for a nice full crop with good sugar.
The plum crops are "spotty at best, said David Botkin of Sun Valley Packing. "Some orchards have a decent crop that requires thinning and some don't. ... But the weather is wonderful. ... Everybody here is very optimistic about our upcoming season.
(For a full report on the California summer fruit deal, see the May 9 issue of The Produce News.)
Excessive spring and early summer heat brought the crop on too fast, and "for the entire first half of the season, fruit volume on average was 60 percent above normal.
According to CTFA President Blair Richardson, from a weather standpoint 2005 has been, so far, "almost the exact opposite of last year, cool and rainy as opposed to hot and dry.
A larger crop is expected than was marketed last year, but it is still modest in size, possibly the third smallest in a decade, he said. There will be enough fruit to market and promote, but not an overabundance.
Significantly, it appears that the harvest will be spread out this year, with varieties coming off in a more normal and orderly manner, rather than one on top of the other as occurred last year.
The estimated total fresh market volume for California peaches, plums and nectarines is about 53.7 million packages, although Mr. Richardson said he expects that number to be adjusted as the season progresses, largely depending on what type of weather may lie ahead.
The 53.7 million-package estimate for 2005 compares with actual shipments of 50.8 million packages in 2004, 58.6 million packages in 2003, a record 59.3 million packages in 2002 and a five-year average of 56.5 million packages.
Peaches are estimated at about 21.2 million packages, up from last year's 20.6 million but below the 22.5 million box crop of the year before.
Nectarines are estimated at about 20.7 million packages, up from last year's 19.9 million but below the 21.6 million box crop of the year before.
Plums are estimated at about 11.9 million boxes, up from 10.3 million last year but below the 14.9 million-box crop of the year before.
According to Mr. Richardson, the expected potential under normal conditions for the combined peach, plum and nectarine crop in California, given current acreage, is around 58 million to 59 million boxes. That is down from the 61 million to 62 million boxes that would have been considered a full crop a few years before, and the reason is a reduction in acreage.
This year's peach estimate is about five percent below what would be considered a full crop. The nectarine estimate is about seven percent short of a full crop. Plums, which have an erratic set, will be light for the second year in a row, with the crop estimated at 20 percent less than a full crop.
Many shippers said that they expect close to a full crop of peaches and nectarines on the earlier varieties, with a little lighter production from about mid-season on.
One problem with the 2004 crop was that the heat accelerated maturity so rapidly that the fruit, particularly on the earlier varieties, did not have time to size normally, putting an overabundance of smaller-sized fruit into the market.
Better fruit sizing is expected this year. The cooler weather is giving the fruit more time to size, growers said.
Harvest dates are expected to be a few days earlier than normal but a few days later than last year, which was exceptionally early.
"Right now, what we are seeing is we are going to be approximately five days later than last year, and last year we were, give or take, 10 days early, Dave Dever of Ballantine Produce said on April 22. The company expected to start its first peach variety, Earlitreat, on April 25.
"We have found nothing that gives us any indication quality will be a problem this year, Mr. Dever said. One good point about the 2004 crop was that the fruit generally had "good eating characteristics, noted Tim Dayka of Pacific Trellis Fruit. "I think last year, the quality of the fruit was exceptional. In that regard, and in overall crop size as well, he said that he expects the current season "to be quite similar to the year 2004.
"I think the crop is going to be about five days later than last year, which is good. We are hoping for a more orderly harvest, said Mike Thurlow of Mountain View Fruit Sales.
"Last year was extremely hot at this exact same time, and it pushed the fruit a little too quick. We weren't able to get the size we wanted. I think that is one reason last year's crop was a little bit tougher to move than most, Mr. Thurlow said.
This year, "we've got perfect weather, with ample chill hours, he said. Some late season varieties "look to be a little bit light, but I think that means we may just be thinning less and getting better size. I look for a nice full crop with good sugar.
The plum crops are "spotty at best, said David Botkin of Sun Valley Packing. "Some orchards have a decent crop that requires thinning and some don't. ... But the weather is wonderful. ... Everybody here is very optimistic about our upcoming season.
(For a full report on the California summer fruit deal, see the May 9 issue of The Produce News.)
