Last year was not a particularly good year for Mexican grapes, according to shippers and distributors in Nogales, AZ, who handle the products. Volume was down, and quality was problematic at times.

But two years ago was another matter. That, they say, was a banner year, with a combination of strong volume and outstanding quality that resulted in strong demand.

This year, there is an air of optimism among marketers of Mexican grapes as it appears that the 2005 crop will be very similar to 2003 with regard to both volume and quality.

Jose Luis Obregon, deputy director of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, said that the Sonora Grape Growers Association has forecast a crop volume for 2005 that will be "very similar to 2003." Two years ago, the state of Sonora exported 15.7 million boxes of grapes to the United States. A similar amount is expected to cross this year. That compares with only 11 million boxes exported to the United States in the 2004 season.

About 75 percent of the Sonoran grapes marketed in the United States will come from the Hermosillo area, and the remainder will come from the Caborca area. Total grape production for Sonora is forecast at 20 million boxes. That figure includes grapes that will be exported to Europe and Asia as well as grapes sold in the national market in Mexico. In 2004, the total crop was in the neighborhood of just 15 million boxes.

?Last year, there was a lot of uncertainties in the deal? because of the short volume, said Jerry Wagner of Farmer?s Best International LLC in Nogales. "It was hard to set ads." By contrast, this year, "We know we are going to have the product. We know it is going to be in a timely manner. So we will have good promotable quantities for the Memorial push."

?We see an excellent crop this year " good volume and excellent quality," said Hillary Brick of The Giumarra Cos. "Growing conditions have been very good. We expect to start the Perlettes around 3 to 5 May. Flames will begin three to five days later, and both varieties will be available in volume 12 to 14 May. The Sugraones will begin harvest around 20 to 23 May and the black seedless and Red Globes will be available in early June. We believe there will be very good volumes of red and green grapes available for Memorial Day ads."

According to Jim Pandol of Spectrum Produce Distributing Inc. in Nogales, Mexico has "more acres coming into production? this year and "the bunch count looks very good." However, in California?s Coachella Valley, which harvests grapes simultaneously with the Mexican season, volume "will be down." Even though Coachella also anticipates good yields per acre, some grape acreage has been diverted to raisins this year and some has succumbed to "development such as housing and golf courses," he said.

Still, "overall, between the two [Sonora and Coachella], it does look like there is going to be plenty of volume, and it could be potentially more volume out of the desert districts than we have ever seen before."

?We are told that it looks like a big crop," said David Westendorf of Dave Westendorf Produce Sales Inc. in Nogales. "Growing conditions have been very good." Weather has been "reasonably cool this spring," he said, and "apparently there was a very even bud break, so the crop looks good."

?The season is relatively early. We are hearing sometime the first week of May. That is good," said Shaun Ricks of Pacific International Marketing in Visalia, CA. "We would expect to have ... at least three good shipping weeks prior to the Memorial Day holiday, and that is always a really good thing."

He expects strong demand for green grapes because the Chilean green grapes will be "pretty much cleaned up? by the time the Mexican Perlettes start. The demand for Mexican Flames "might not be quite as good? because "I think there will be more Chilean red grapes? in the market late in the deal. "A fair number of Crimsons? are "coming out of Chile now," he said in early April.

Still, he expects that both red and green grapes "will do very well out of Mexico? this season."

Charlie Calixtro of Calixtro Distributing Co. Inc. in Nogales said April 5, "I talked to a few shippers around town today and they are all [expecting to start] most likely the first week of May. We?ll see the high prices the first few days of May," with promotional quantities available by the week of May 12 "on both Flames and Perlettes."

Perlettes, Flames, Sugraones and Red Globes are the major varieties now being grown in Sonora, but some growers also have black seedless, Ruby seedless and Thompsons. Thompson acreage is much reduced from what it was several years ago, whereas Sugraone acreage is said to have increased.

?We are anticipating a good year this year," said Atomic Torosian of Crown Jewels Marketing & Distribution in Fresno, CA. "Last year, the quality overall was not very good. Volume was way down. There were a lot of light sets. This year, we are looking at somewhat of a bumper crop, and the quality should be outstanding. It should be a real banner year for quality."

Bill Sykes of The Sykes Co. in Nogales and chairman of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas had just returned from a grower meeting in Mexico when he spoke with The Produce News on Wednesday, April 6. "They?re expecting a year very similar to 2003 and should have somewhere in the neighborhood of about 16 million? boxes of grapes for export to the United States, he said. In addition, growers expect to export about 1 million boxes to other export destinations and to sell about 3 million boxes in the national market in Mexico, he said.

?The growers are very proud of the quality this year," he added. "They said it could be some of the best quality we have had in many years. The bunches are large. The grapes will be large."

When there is a 16-million box crop to market and "you are lucky enough to have an early start? and a late date (May 30) for Memorial Day, "this is just a terrific combination," he said. "Now we can promote Flames to the East Coast for Memorial Day, because by the 15th or 16th, we will be into Flames pretty well."

Excellent quality helped sell a big crop in 2003 and should do so again this year, Mr. Sykes said. "In 2003, we all had big numbers, but the quality was so good that it was very easy to sell."

?The crop looks to be very good," said Karen Osborn of Wilson-Batiz of California (Northern Division) in Visalia, CA. "We had basically two sets on the vines this year, which is very good, compared to last year when there were about four sets," resulting in the crop coming off erratically. "Things are a lot more consistent this year," she said.

John Forry of D.J. Forry Co. in Reedley, CA, concurred. "We had a very even bloom, so we are looking to see a better quality than last year. The weather has been really conducive to positive growing conditions. The harvest should be "less erratic," he said. "We should be able to get more off per pick because of the evenness of the bloom."

(A full report on the Mexican grape deal will appear in the April 18 issue of The Produce News.)