California Navel shipments ahead of last year despite smaller crop
California Navel shipments ahead of last year despite smaller crop
Year-to-date shipments of California Navel oranges were running ahead of last season as of Jan. 2, even though the estimated 2006-07 crop is smaller than last year's bumper crop, according to Joel Nelsen, president of California Citrus Mutual in Exeter, CA.
The 2005-06 California Navel orange crop came in heavier than expected at a whopping 91 million cartons. This season, as the Navel harvest got under way last fall, the California Agricultural Statistics Service estimated the 2006-07 crop to be about 27 percent lighter than that, or about 66 million cartons.
Even so, as of Dec. 15, California growers had picked, packed and shipped about 11.5 million cartons of Navels this season, compared to about 9.4 million cartons as of the same date the previous season.
"So, 2 million cartons more fruit have been moved on a shorter crop," Mr. Nelsen said.
Significantly, the f.o.b. prices for the fruit have been better this year, on average, than they were a year ago, he added.
As of mid-December, an estimated 18 percent of the crop had been harvested compared to about 15 percent of the larger crop the previous year, Mr. Nelsen said. Although firm figures were not yet available for shipments from mid-December to the first of the year, he estimated that around 22-23 percent of the crop had been shipped as of Jan. 2, which would still be running ahead of last year.
Typically, movement tapers off for a few weeks after about mid-December, following the Christmas pull, Mr. Nelsen noted.
One reason for the better movement this year is that the size structure of the fruit is better than a year ago. The 2005-06 crop was characterized by a lot of small-sized fruit. This year, "the size structure is very good," Mr. Nelsen said. "We are peaking on 88s and 72s right now."
California citrus growers have also "moved a lot more Mandarin variety fruit this year," he said. That is largely as a result of maturing young plantings, mainly of clementines but also other Mandarin types.
"That volume [is expected to be] doubled this year from last, and it will probably double again next year," Mr. Nelsen said. As an industry, "we have to watch how to increase that market share without cannibalizing the Navel orange deal."
Throughout most of December, growers have battled freezing temperatures that threatened to damage the citrus crops and probably have caused a certain amount of damage, Mr. Nelsen said. The extent of any damage is still being assessed. It is not expected to be extensive, but in a short crop year, any loss of volume will be felt in the market, he said.
Although temperatures have not plummeted as low as in some years when extensive frost damage has occurred, the number of nights that temperatures have hovered around the danger zone has been greater than normal.
Growers had their wind machines going 15 nights during the month of December at an estimated cost to the industry of about $10 million a night, he said. Typically, growers will budget for about 10 to 12 nights of wind machine operation during the entire winter season. Historically, frost can continue to be a concern through the month of January.
The 2005-06 California Navel orange crop came in heavier than expected at a whopping 91 million cartons. This season, as the Navel harvest got under way last fall, the California Agricultural Statistics Service estimated the 2006-07 crop to be about 27 percent lighter than that, or about 66 million cartons.
Even so, as of Dec. 15, California growers had picked, packed and shipped about 11.5 million cartons of Navels this season, compared to about 9.4 million cartons as of the same date the previous season.
"So, 2 million cartons more fruit have been moved on a shorter crop," Mr. Nelsen said.
Significantly, the f.o.b. prices for the fruit have been better this year, on average, than they were a year ago, he added.
As of mid-December, an estimated 18 percent of the crop had been harvested compared to about 15 percent of the larger crop the previous year, Mr. Nelsen said. Although firm figures were not yet available for shipments from mid-December to the first of the year, he estimated that around 22-23 percent of the crop had been shipped as of Jan. 2, which would still be running ahead of last year.
Typically, movement tapers off for a few weeks after about mid-December, following the Christmas pull, Mr. Nelsen noted.
One reason for the better movement this year is that the size structure of the fruit is better than a year ago. The 2005-06 crop was characterized by a lot of small-sized fruit. This year, "the size structure is very good," Mr. Nelsen said. "We are peaking on 88s and 72s right now."
California citrus growers have also "moved a lot more Mandarin variety fruit this year," he said. That is largely as a result of maturing young plantings, mainly of clementines but also other Mandarin types.
"That volume [is expected to be] doubled this year from last, and it will probably double again next year," Mr. Nelsen said. As an industry, "we have to watch how to increase that market share without cannibalizing the Navel orange deal."
Throughout most of December, growers have battled freezing temperatures that threatened to damage the citrus crops and probably have caused a certain amount of damage, Mr. Nelsen said. The extent of any damage is still being assessed. It is not expected to be extensive, but in a short crop year, any loss of volume will be felt in the market, he said.
Although temperatures have not plummeted as low as in some years when extensive frost damage has occurred, the number of nights that temperatures have hovered around the danger zone has been greater than normal.
Growers had their wind machines going 15 nights during the month of December at an estimated cost to the industry of about $10 million a night, he said. Typically, growers will budget for about 10 to 12 nights of wind machine operation during the entire winter season. Historically, frost can continue to be a concern through the month of January.
