No one knows when it will happen but the Cotopaxi volcano in Ecuador will erupt one day and probably destroy surrounding rose farms and neighborhoods. According to volcanologists, the magma is rising and the volcano will erupt, but it could take days, weeks, months or even years. The uncertainty has growers not only fearing losing their farms but also fearing that current customers are looking for other growers to ensure their flower supply.

The Cotopaxi volcano in Ecuador poses a hazard to surrounding rose farms and neighborhoods should it one day erupt, which unfortunately is likely.“The Cotopaxi volcano continues to release steam and intermittent ash,” Edwin Verdezota, president at Royal Flowers Inc. in Miami, told The Produce News. “No one knows what will happen. Only one of our four farms in near the Cotopaxi, the others are far away. A volcanic eruption has always been a possibility. The risk factor is high, and the well-being of our people is our most important concern. We have created an elaborate plan, including building of paths to the safe, elevated points, safe houses with enough supplies, food, medicine, tools and radios to take care of our people and their families. We are ready to evacuate on a moment’s notice.”

Pablo Viel, former general manager and partner at Petyroses in Ecuador, told The Produce News that the Cotopaxi volcano is expelling steam and ash — consisting of pulverized rock, minerals and volcanic silica — almost daily and most farms in the surrounding area are feeling the impact.

“There must be over 50 rose farms right on the evacuation area. Most of them are receiving volcanic ash every day that affects greenhouses and water supply and clogs up filters and messes up the water quality for production,” said Viel. “But the real problem will be if a big eruption occurs, because then it will melt the snow and cause a mudslide. Lahar will occur — that’s a type of mudflow or debris flow composed of slurry of pyroclastic material, rocky debris and water. The material flows down from the volcano, typically along a river valley. So all valleys that have rivers in them will flood and most of the farms near Cotopaxi are in those valleys. They’re estimating lahars of 100 feet, so farms will disappear. I don’t think they will have time to evacuate because they estimate that the mudslides can occur within 10 to 20 minutes of the eruption.”

Viel also explained that several farms are now under a yellow alert. “From yellow alert, they move to orange and then red. Evacuation will occur under orange alert and who knows how long that will last? Farms could be forced to be abandoned,” Viel said. “There are no predictions — volcanoes are unpredictable. It can be a very big eruption, or a mild one, so there is a lot of uncertainty, despair and desperation at the farms in that area. I think it would produce a [rose] shortage for Valentine’s Day.”

Verdezota agreed that Cotopaxi is potentially a big problem for all the growers around the volcano. “Uncertainty is the biggest issue we face. No one knows what will happen nor when it will happen,” said Verdezota. “A severe eruption is our worst nightmare, but we have prepared as much as possible. Hopefully, it’s like the Tungurahua — a volcano further south from Cotopaxi — that has been erupting for 10 years slowly, steadily and safely with minimal damage to the community. As they say, you can only prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”

The experts say the eruption has reduced but will continue to be a slow and steady eruption “like we’ve seen. We can only hope,” he said.