Canelos skeptical on El Nino
Canelos skeptical on El Nino
NOGALES, AZ — Alejandro Canelos acknowledges that Mexico late this summer saw more rain than usual. He is also aware of the El Nino forecast that calls for heavy rain on the west coasts of Mexico and the United States this winter. But the director of Apache Produce Imports LLC doesn’t entirely buy the forecast.
“Maybe,” is his feeling thereof. “In my personal experience, I’ve heard it before and it didn’t really happen. When it really happened it wasn’t really predicted,” he said. “They constantly talk about rainy years and for [produce] sellers, it gets in their psyche. You can take it the next step further. If you get more rain in September, can you extrapolate that in November Culiacan will have more rain? They could go five months without rain,” he said.
If growers choose not to make sales contracts for fear of having inadequate supplies they face the prospect of having no contracts and sitting with a great deal of product, he noted.
“There is the same hysteria in the stock market, which can go up or down 300 points when there is no fundamental change” from the day before. That said, Apache’s vast greenhouse production in Mexico is valuable insurance if there is heavy rain. “If you are prepared for rain, you do well. That’s why we build greenhouses, to prep for inclement weather. At some point, if you have the right technology in the right place, you can take advantage of shortages and pay for your technology.”
