NOGALES, AZ — With hundreds of millions of dollars invested in Mexican fields every year, Nogales fruit and vegetable distributors are always concerned about adverse weather affecting their fields. Now there is an extra cause for concern because of warm eastern Pacific waters boosting El Niño.

"El Niño is intensifying much earlier than usual this summer and may become the strongest on record in the modern era later this year,” The Weather Channel reported. “The current El Niño is not only a virtual lock to be strong, but may eventually rival the strongest in modern records dating to 1950, with anomalies approaching or exceeding the 2.3 degrees Celsius observed in late 1997.”Jaime Chamberlain

Jaime Chamberlain, president of J-C Distributing Inc., a leading Nogales produce distributor, said Aug. 27 that he is “extremely concerned” about El Niño. “It is a big topic right now. I am afraid it’s something a lot of people don’t want to talk about too much. But at the end of the day, it is there. You can see the climate changing in Mexico.”

Last year there were threatening tropical storms and hurricanes that were damaging but could have been much worse.

“I think we’ve not seen that last of this,” said Chamberlain. “It is risky when you have money involved in these farms. The crux of farming is that it’s a big risk.”

Omar Losolla, director of sales and marketing at GreenPoint Distributing LLC in nearby Rio Rico, AZ, said his organization “is absolutely concerned” about the El Niño forecast. “Every year is different but you hear and read about a lot of rain coming into the growing areas of Mexico. That is a concern. Excessive rain is especially damaging to tomato and squash crops. If it is constantly raining and the skies are overcast it is not good for pollination. You have a lot of production problems.”

Losolla said this summer has brought more rain than normal to Mexico, which has been good for filling irrigation reservoirs.

Chamberlain expects storms in Mexico to begin this September. “I am really worried about December, January and February that can catch you in peak volume.”

Chamberlain noted that the produce industry is involved in more and more contracting to supply foodservice, retail and other customers. Over the last five or six years those contracts have about doubled from one year to the next.

“When the weather patterns change this way you’ve got to do your best to protect yourself,” he said.  

Mexico’s vegetable production has grown rapidly through the application of shade houses, plastic-covered greenhouses and plastic tunnels, Chamberlain noted. It is the glass greenhouses that provide the best protection from storms, but that construction is also the most expensive.

Chamberlain also noted that the forecast for the northeastern United States calls for another brutal winter.

“It was a very difficult year for us last year for us with the East Coast shutting down,” said Chamberlain. “When you cut off that portion of the population, it really closes our opportunities. We need the whole country and Canada to sell our crops.”