Domestic watermelon production is set to kick in high gear for the summer months according to data gathered by the National Watermelon Promotion Board. “Most folks realize that watermelon is the king of Independence Day,” Jason Hanselman, industry affairs associate, told The Produce News. “But our second most important time of the year is the lead up to Memorial Day. Our shippers strive to get as much product into stores as they can for this important holiday that generally marks the beginning of summer for us folks up North.”

The snapshot of domestic production from the period April 1 through June 1 shows the following forecasted volumes: Florida/499.7 million pounds; Texas/150.5 million pounds; California/59.5 million pounds; Arizona/14.6 million pounds; and Georgia/3.3 million pounds.

During this period, Mexico is forecasted to export 523.8 million pounds. Volume exported by Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Panama tails off at this time.

“The Memorial Day buildup peaks at close to 45 million pounds per day,” Hanselman said. “At 16 pounds per watermelon, you’re talking close to 3 million individual watermelons sold on a single day. Florida is the biggest contributor for the holiday. But Texas is usually fully up to speed by then to help offset the decline on Mexican imports. California and Arizona are also shipping at that time to help supply west of the Rockies.”

Hanselman was asked to provide some observations regarding seeded versus seedless watermelons. “We’re seeing slow growth of seedless continuing to take market share,” he replied. “We saw a big jump last year after some slow progress in the four years prior. I imagine we will reach a point where seedless kind of reaches a ceiling, and I could even see a bit of a giveback this year after such a tremendous jump. But the fact of the matter is that consumers continue to demand seedless watermelon.”

He provided a recap about first quarter watermelon shipments during 2015 based on data from the Agricultural Marketing Service News Portal. “We’re nearly mirroring last year after the first quarter with volume up just slightly and prices essentially the same,” Hanselman said. “While prices aren’t as high as 2012 or 2013, we are seeing a lot more movement these past two years.”

Guatemala “was the big winner” during the first quarter, exporting 46 million more pounds, slightly more than double its prior movement. Hanselman said Mexican exports increased 28 million pounds, and Panama's export volume was nearly triple. “Costa Rica was down the most as we barely got anything from them when we usually get around seven million pounds,” he said.

Looking at trends from 2010 through 2014, Hanselman said, “We see a pretty linear incline here as showing that movement has steadily been above the norm and not a scenario of fits and starts where we see overproduction followed by a shortage of watermelon. This slow and steady approach may give a better ability to project future pricing because if we know that we’re, say, 15 percent above average across the board, then we’re seeing more predictability, which makes it easier to project future pricing.”

Summing up first quarter movement, he said, “We see that movement was above average for almost every week of the quarter and that this recent take off, while not the fastest acceleration of movement due to last year’s rocketing start, is still very strong as compared to previous years.”