The devastating drought is extremely serious for the California farming industry, as limited water results in limited produce for the market.

The weather is a factor in just about everything we do. It is the main subject in daily conversations, and dictates our decision-making in planning functions for work, traveling, gardening, cookouts, biking, ballgames and numerous other affairs.As a former buyer, Ron Pelger feels the two most important points his mentors taught him were to pay close attention to the weather and crop information.

Farmers depend on a cooperative Mother Nature for growing crops, and rain has always been an important factor in the production of fruits and vegetables in California.

Due to the severe drought conditions, California Gov. Jerry Brown recently ordered residents and businesses to cut water use by 25 percent. If the crops cannot eventually get water, it could be devastating throughout the industry and especially for consumers.

How serious is this unfortunate crisis?

Barry Bedwell, president of the California Fresh Fruit Association in Fresno, said, “In 2014, estimates from the University of California put the impact of the drought on California agriculture at 400,000 acres being fallowed, a loss of approximately 17,000 jobs and a cost of approximately $2 billion in lost economic impact. Preliminary guesses for 2015 indicate those numbers could conceivably double. There will be little or no surface water available for growers, so they will need to rely almost entirely on groundwater pumping. Now what does that really mean to consumers and retailers?

“The biggest impact on production will revolve around annual crops such as cotton, alfalfa, processing tomatoes, possibly melons and any leafy greens grown in the Central Valley,” Bedwell continued. “Permanent fresh fruit crops such as table grapes, peaches, plums, nectarines, pears and cherries, will have to rely on groundwater and hope their pumps hold out and their wells do not go dry. There could be a small impact in this area of concern, but we do not foresee any large disruptions in supply for permanent crops. Longer term is the concern over management of groundwater supplies, which is currently set to take place in 2020. But given the severity of the drought, many voices are clamoring for a quicker implementation. Longer term this is the issue that will have the greatest impact on constricting supplies.”

Tom V. Nunes, vice president of growing and harvesting for The Nunes Co. Inc. in Salinas, CA, said, “Water has and will continue to be a closely  watched topic by our company. We will continue to position ourselves in the best possible way to protect our farming operations and ultimately our customers. We will continue to be engaged in every aspect of the water conversation not just in California but in all of our growing regions.”

Dan Avakian, owner-operator of Dan’s Fresh Produce in Alameda, CA, added, “Although I buy produce on all three Bay area terminal markets, most of my produce comes from small local organic family farms. The drought has many of my growers cutting back on plantings, with some of them eliminating certain crops entirely. This will drastically reduce the selection. So as always, supply and demand is at play and pricing will be affected.”

We should consider if and how the drought could alter some areas of retail buying and merchandising programs. After all, California is vital for placing food on the table of U.S. consumers.

The produce industry always requires steady marketing information and follow-up. The drought crisis is yet another challenge in the retail industry for all of us, as it forces produce buyers to be sharper on the markets more than ever before.

Since produce procurement is a vital function, it will take additional effort by all buyers to study item availability and practice category management more carefully in everyday operations.

As for merchandising, it may call for a few adjustments based on product availability. If some items are very scarce and costs become far out of range, it could mean decreasing display space. Following the marketing reports and analyzing each item very carefully will determine those decisions by produce executives when and if that circumstance occurs.

The main point is that staying ahead of the game will prove extremely vital in maintaining produce sales. Budgets are in solid commitment and must be achieved. The drought should not be used as excuses in meetings for lack of sales and gross, especially to upper management, which has no real clue as to the unique challenges in the produce industry.

As a former buyer, I learned the two most important points my mentors in this business taught me were to pay close attention to the weather and crop information. These were always determining factors in decision-making strategies of the produce operation.

Retailers do what they can to protect their business and achieve budgets. Farmers do what they can to sustain water and protect their investments.

Ron Pelger is the president and CEO of RonProCon, a consulting firm for the produce industry, and a co-founder of FreshXperts LLC, a group of produce professionals. He can be reached by phone at  775/853-7056 or 775/843-2394 (mobile) or by email at [email protected].