If the grape crop in California's Arvin district, the earliest in the San Joaquin Valley, comes off in the way it appeared to be shaping up as of the second week of June, it will be a welcome relief to buyers who have struggled to secure promotable volumes during the Mexico and Coachella spring grape seasons.

The desert grape deals so far, out of both Mexico and Coachella, had been light on most varieties as well as late, making grape supplies short and prices steeper than usual at mid-season for the deals.

But growers say they expect the crop in Arvin to be close to normal volume, if a week to 10 days late. The size and quality of the fruit were also looking promising.

"The deal's on fire," and supplies are "very tight," Louie Galvan of Fruit Royale said June 8. In Mexico, the Hermosillo deal "was way short, over 50 percent." That is "approaching crop failure," he said. In Caborca, the later district in Mexico, "the fruit is there. It is just not quite ready." He expected Caborca to be into some volume "within the next week," with "plenty of fruit available" for the Fourth of July. But early June brought a gap in supplies during a time that "we normally have plenty of fruit" and there are usually promotions going across the country, he said.

"Our Mexican Flames are going to be finishing fairly quickly," said Anthony Stetson of Pandol Bros. "The Mexican deal is probably going to be off almost 50 percent," at least out of Hermosillo, where the fruit has had trouble getting either sugar or color. But he did expect "a pretty decent crop out of Caborca."

In Arvin, by contrast, "it looks like it is a pretty normal-sized crop for Pandol," neither exceptionally big nor exceptionally small, Mr. Stetson said. "The berry size looks good, and the bunch counts are nice. So long as everything finishes normally, we should have a pretty normal crop."

"The desert is late and light," David Clyde of Stevco Inc. said in reference to Coachella. "The Flames are taking their time in coloring," and bunch size and berry size are down, reducing the crop size. "It is taking double the amount of bunches to pack a box" compared to last year, "so you are losing 50 percent of the crop that way." The green grape harvest in Coachella could continue until "sometime around the 15th of July," he said. Stevco's Arvin grapes were expected to start about July 10, which is late. "Everything is on a late track at the moment," he said.

"Coachella is very short," noted Mario Macias of Mario Macias Co. Inc. As of June 7, Perlettes were about 50 percent of last year's volume to date, and Flames were off almost 30 percent. And "they've already peaked on volume and they are going downhill," he said, referencing the "Western Fruit Report."

Mexico's volume is also "going to be very short, extremely short," he said.

But the deal in Arvin "looks very promising" because most varieties appear to have "a good decent crop" and grapes are sizing nicely. "We are greatly anticipating the Arvin deal this year because of how the grape deals are finishing up" in Mexico and Coachella, said Shaun Ricks of Pacific International Marketing. Markets are strong for both areas, which should "provide a nice start-up for us in Arvin," he said.

Mr. Ricks is seeing slightly smaller fruit sets in Arvin than last year, but because of that, the fruit size should be up from last year, he said. While prices for the Arvin deal won't "stay up at the $30 level like we see in Mexico and Coachella right now, we do think they will open up at higher-than-historical normal levels, and we think we will have a good deal throughout."

"Nobody anticipated shortfalls of Mexican production" to the extent they have occurred, said John Harley of Anthony Vineyards. The company's Coachella deal, as of June 7, appeared to be off about 20 percent from normal as well. As a result, "we have a deal going on down here that is pretty exciting" in terms of market demand. He expected that to continue "right up into Arvin."

In Arvin, "everything looks pretty good," with normal crops for most varieties, "good quality and good berry size, as things are starting to develop," Mr. Harley said.

With packouts in Coachella below normal, "we are hoping for better things up north," said Rick Paul of Sun World International. "We have had harvests like this before down here [in Coachella], he said. "Not many times, but we have had them." However, "up north" in the San Joaquin Valley, even when the crop has been short, "we haven't had any trouble getting the crop off."

He hopes that will be the case again this year because the situation in the desert "has just made it really difficult for us to set up any programs and honor them with any degree of success. We don't like it, and the customers don't like it. They are very understanding, but it is just very difficult. They need the fruit in their stores. We need it in their stores. And thus far, it has been very tough. But we are optimistic" that generally speaking, the crops from Arvin north are looking good.

"We expect a demand-exceeds-supply position from the transition out of the desert regions into Arvin," said Steve Ryan of Ballantine Produce Co. He expected that "the pipeline will be somewhat empty" for both red and green grapes when Arvin starts.

So far, "everything looks very healthy in the [Arvin] growing region ... and the bunch conformation looks very good right now," Mr. Ryan said.