Despite May's heat wave, Northwest cherry crop looks great
Despite May's heat wave, Northwest cherry crop looks great
Twenty-five researchers and growers met May 18 at the Cherry Institute meeting in Yakima, WA, to find out how the May 15 heat wave and record-setting temperatures would affect the 2006 Northwest cherry crop.
"The consensus is that four days of heat is nothing but good," stated Washington State Fruit Commission President and Northwest Cherry Growers Program Manager B.J. Thurlby. "Everyone is feeling good about sizing. Barring any weather circumstances, we'll have a great year."
Growers were given a respite in the latter part of the week of May 15 as temperatures cooled off and became more seasonal. "If there had been three weeks of weather, it would have hurt," Mr. Thurlby said.
High heat did force some of the weaker fruit off the trees, and Mr. Thurlby said this is expected to improve sizing. Although overall per-acre yield is expected to decrease, overall cherry volume for the marketplace is not expected to fluctuate due to better sizing, according to Mr. Thurlby, who added that pricing is anticipated to remain stable in 2006.
In mid-May, Northwest Cherry Growers expected early harvest to begin mid- June, with volumes to hit in July.
"I'd like to see that date move up a bit," Mr. Thurlby told The Produce News.
New trees, particularly varieties such as Sweethearts, Tietons and Skeenas, are coming into production, and with different varieties at different stages of bloom and development, Mr. Thurlby said that the news is good for the industry. "The crop isn't going to come off at the same time, [and] there will be strong demand," he said.
Northwest Cherry Growers Promotion Director David Severn agreed that cherry production is giving growers a good marketing window.
"We are producing more fruit than 10 years ago," Mr. Severn said. He explained that new trees at higher elevations are extending that window as later varieties come on line.
A look back at a decade of production shows the industry to be in good standing. Mr. Severn said that in 1995, a total of 4 million boxes were marketed, and by 2005 that figure had jumped dramatically to 12 million boxes.
"That's pretty big growth," Mr. Severn commented.
Since consumer demand remains high, Mr. Severn said the industry could become more innovative, particularly with packaging. With bulk on its way out of retail, Mr. Severn said that opportunities abound to give consumers good quality product in ziplocks, random-weight bags or clamshells. This packaging, said Mr. Severn, helps reduce the amount of shrink, "a great benefit for us."
The newer packaging options also mean fruit quality stays higher. "Every time you have someone handling fruit, it decreases the quality," Mr. Severn said.
Sweethearts are the fastest-growing variety in terms of sales, and Rainier sales have also shown tremendous growth, according to Mr. Severn. He said that in 2005, 10,000 tons of Northwest Rainier cherries were marketed.
Mr. Severn also said that results of a recent study conducted by the A.C. Nielsen Co. are exceptionally welcome news for the cherry industry.
Consumer shopping carts, representing 10,000 households, were studied at checkout, and it was determined that cherries had a penetration rate of 27 percent among the households studied. "Consumers will purchase, and the price remains stable," Mr. Severn stated. "There is a real opportunity to expand the penetration."
The study also revealed that people who had cherries in their shopping carts tended to spend 10 percent more on their overall purchases. The study shows purchases are driven by cherry quality and not price, Mr. Severn said.
Because of the limited marketing window for cherries, Mr. Severn said that the industry must educate retailers about the per-square- foot value of the fruit. Research shows that cherries are underdisplayed at retail but have the best dollar-for-dollar return for each square foot of display space.
"It's worth giving cherries more space," Mr. Severn added.
The effort to tweak retailer thinking about dedicated space comes in the wake of a good forecast this season. According to Mr. Severn, cherry volume will increase by approximately 700,000 boxes in 2006.
Bings remain predominant in terms of volume with 60 percent of production, followed by Lapins with 15 percent, Rainiers with 12 percent and Sweethearts with 4.5 percent. The balance of the crop total is shared by other varieties.
In addition to domestic sales and consumption, Mr. Severn said that export markets show great promise. In 2005, approximately 30 percent of the Northwest cherry crop made its way into foreign markets, with key destinations including Canada for 1.1 million cartons, Taiwan for 760,000 cartons, Japan for 580,000 cartons, the United Kingdom for 300,000 cartons, Hong Kong/China for 215,000 cartons, Australia for 120,000 cartons and South Korea for 60,000 cartons.
Mexico is showing growth as an emerging market at 23,000 boxes in 2005, and product is also being sold in Southeast Asia.
"We are looking for a lot of growth in China because the fruit can go directly there," Mr. Severn stated. He also indicated that South Korea is expected to be a hot market in the future.
In-season cherry sales account for 10 percent of all produce purchases. With this key statistic in hand, Mr. Severn said that strong retail campaigns are in place in the United States and Canada.
The promotions are geared toward radio and print media as a way to maximize exposure and cost effectiveness. Recently, a study was conducted with eight retailersin which four of the retailers were provided with informational radio ads and four were not. After monitoring cherry sales in the eight retail locations, it was determined that the four using radio ads saw an uptick of 14 percent in cherry sales.
"We were pretty excited about this," Mr. Severn said.
Looking toward the future, Mr. Severn stated, "Demand for organics is increasing. The organic numbers are small, but growers are working on this."
Mr. Thurlby agreed. "The trend in retail around the world is the move to organics."
Today, there are 3,000 cherry growers in Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Utah, and according to Mr. Thurlby, organic production in the Northwest accounts for 8 percent of all Northwest cherries. Mr. Thurlby expects that percentage to double in the next five years, and double again in five more years.
"It's a part of diversifying [grower] crops," Mr. Thurlby said.
(For more on the Northwest cherry deal, see the June 5 issue of The Produce News.)
"The consensus is that four days of heat is nothing but good," stated Washington State Fruit Commission President and Northwest Cherry Growers Program Manager B.J. Thurlby. "Everyone is feeling good about sizing. Barring any weather circumstances, we'll have a great year."
Growers were given a respite in the latter part of the week of May 15 as temperatures cooled off and became more seasonal. "If there had been three weeks of weather, it would have hurt," Mr. Thurlby said.
High heat did force some of the weaker fruit off the trees, and Mr. Thurlby said this is expected to improve sizing. Although overall per-acre yield is expected to decrease, overall cherry volume for the marketplace is not expected to fluctuate due to better sizing, according to Mr. Thurlby, who added that pricing is anticipated to remain stable in 2006.
In mid-May, Northwest Cherry Growers expected early harvest to begin mid- June, with volumes to hit in July.
"I'd like to see that date move up a bit," Mr. Thurlby told The Produce News.
New trees, particularly varieties such as Sweethearts, Tietons and Skeenas, are coming into production, and with different varieties at different stages of bloom and development, Mr. Thurlby said that the news is good for the industry. "The crop isn't going to come off at the same time, [and] there will be strong demand," he said.
Northwest Cherry Growers Promotion Director David Severn agreed that cherry production is giving growers a good marketing window.
"We are producing more fruit than 10 years ago," Mr. Severn said. He explained that new trees at higher elevations are extending that window as later varieties come on line.
A look back at a decade of production shows the industry to be in good standing. Mr. Severn said that in 1995, a total of 4 million boxes were marketed, and by 2005 that figure had jumped dramatically to 12 million boxes.
"That's pretty big growth," Mr. Severn commented.
Since consumer demand remains high, Mr. Severn said the industry could become more innovative, particularly with packaging. With bulk on its way out of retail, Mr. Severn said that opportunities abound to give consumers good quality product in ziplocks, random-weight bags or clamshells. This packaging, said Mr. Severn, helps reduce the amount of shrink, "a great benefit for us."
The newer packaging options also mean fruit quality stays higher. "Every time you have someone handling fruit, it decreases the quality," Mr. Severn said.
Sweethearts are the fastest-growing variety in terms of sales, and Rainier sales have also shown tremendous growth, according to Mr. Severn. He said that in 2005, 10,000 tons of Northwest Rainier cherries were marketed.
Mr. Severn also said that results of a recent study conducted by the A.C. Nielsen Co. are exceptionally welcome news for the cherry industry.
Consumer shopping carts, representing 10,000 households, were studied at checkout, and it was determined that cherries had a penetration rate of 27 percent among the households studied. "Consumers will purchase, and the price remains stable," Mr. Severn stated. "There is a real opportunity to expand the penetration."
The study also revealed that people who had cherries in their shopping carts tended to spend 10 percent more on their overall purchases. The study shows purchases are driven by cherry quality and not price, Mr. Severn said.
Because of the limited marketing window for cherries, Mr. Severn said that the industry must educate retailers about the per-square- foot value of the fruit. Research shows that cherries are underdisplayed at retail but have the best dollar-for-dollar return for each square foot of display space.
"It's worth giving cherries more space," Mr. Severn added.
The effort to tweak retailer thinking about dedicated space comes in the wake of a good forecast this season. According to Mr. Severn, cherry volume will increase by approximately 700,000 boxes in 2006.
Bings remain predominant in terms of volume with 60 percent of production, followed by Lapins with 15 percent, Rainiers with 12 percent and Sweethearts with 4.5 percent. The balance of the crop total is shared by other varieties.
In addition to domestic sales and consumption, Mr. Severn said that export markets show great promise. In 2005, approximately 30 percent of the Northwest cherry crop made its way into foreign markets, with key destinations including Canada for 1.1 million cartons, Taiwan for 760,000 cartons, Japan for 580,000 cartons, the United Kingdom for 300,000 cartons, Hong Kong/China for 215,000 cartons, Australia for 120,000 cartons and South Korea for 60,000 cartons.
Mexico is showing growth as an emerging market at 23,000 boxes in 2005, and product is also being sold in Southeast Asia.
"We are looking for a lot of growth in China because the fruit can go directly there," Mr. Severn stated. He also indicated that South Korea is expected to be a hot market in the future.
In-season cherry sales account for 10 percent of all produce purchases. With this key statistic in hand, Mr. Severn said that strong retail campaigns are in place in the United States and Canada.
The promotions are geared toward radio and print media as a way to maximize exposure and cost effectiveness. Recently, a study was conducted with eight retailersin which four of the retailers were provided with informational radio ads and four were not. After monitoring cherry sales in the eight retail locations, it was determined that the four using radio ads saw an uptick of 14 percent in cherry sales.
"We were pretty excited about this," Mr. Severn said.
Looking toward the future, Mr. Severn stated, "Demand for organics is increasing. The organic numbers are small, but growers are working on this."
Mr. Thurlby agreed. "The trend in retail around the world is the move to organics."
Today, there are 3,000 cherry growers in Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Utah, and according to Mr. Thurlby, organic production in the Northwest accounts for 8 percent of all Northwest cherries. Mr. Thurlby expects that percentage to double in the next five years, and double again in five more years.
"It's a part of diversifying [grower] crops," Mr. Thurlby said.
(For more on the Northwest cherry deal, see the June 5 issue of The Produce News.)
