U.S. leading world in economic rebound
U.S. leading world in economic rebound
NEW ORLEANS — The United States is rebounding nicely from its economic woes over the past several years and that should bode well for the agricultural sector, according to a panel at the Produce Marketing Association Fresh Summit convention, here.
The panelists convened and discussed various subjects, including the world economy and factors that will affect countries and business sectors as they distance themselves from the most recent recession.
Vernon Crowder of Rabobank led the discussion, which included two other member of the Rabobank team: Elwin de Groot, senior Eurozone strategist; and Nader Pasdar, who is involved in loan syndicating at the giant bank.
De Groot said Europe will continue to lag behind the United States in its recovery. Europe is still struggling, he said, but added that signs for the future are looking much better. He said the U.S. economy is doing quite well and outpacing many other countries. He pointed to the shale gas revolution as one business sector helping to drive the economic upturn.
Both Pasdar and de Groot were basically complimentary of efforts by the U.S. government and its Federal Reserve Bank to help pull the United States out of its recession with its monetary policy of increased liquidity.
They were not nearly as complimentary of Congress and its strategy of bringing the country to the brink of default before agreeing to fund the government. In fact, de Groot said the uncertainty about what Congress will do next is one of the biggest drags on how the world views the U.S. economy.
De Groot also said the Mexico has very "strong fundamentals" and he is "bullish on Mexico and the Mexican peso" in the long run.
He said that China should continue to have impressive growth, but he warned that the huge buildup of debt in that country must be addressed by the government.
De Groot expressed confidence that the government is working to reign in that situation, but said that if they continued on their current path, it would be a path toward a debt crisis that plagued Japan a decade ago and Greece much more recently.
Pasdar spoke a lot about liquidity in the United States, which he said has led to the recovery. He responded to an audience member question about the threat of inflation, and discounted the concept.
In fact, he believes a stronger case can be made for deflation. Pasdar said the current economic conditions would seem to be a very difficult environment for inflation to flourish.
Speaking specifically of the fresh produce sector, Crowder said that global fruit and vegetable production has grown by 35 percent in the past decade. The rise of the middle class in China and many other under-developed countries have fueled that growth, as the Rabobank executive said fruit and vegetable consumption remains static on a per-capita basis in most developed countries.