“We are a little more than a half year into eGrocery’s current growth curve, fueled by aggressive offers to lock in customers for at least 12 months,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “So far, the response from U.S. households reveals a sizable amount of latent demand that has been unlocked by offering discounts designed to help customers save more money on online grocery orders.”
Delivery continued to post extremely strong results for February 2025, growing more than 45 percent versus a year ago and registering $4.5 billion in sales. A surge in monthly active users (MAUs) was the predominant growth factor, driven mainly by the rapid expansion of users in the 60-plus age group and a YOY rebound in penetration with 18- to 29-year-olds. Strong gains in order frequency and average order values (AOVs) also contributed to this robust performance, enabling delivery to finish the month with nearly 44 percent of eGrocery’s total sales.
Pickup reported very strong gains for February 2025, climbing 19 percent versus last year, to approximately $4.1 billion in sales. Pickup’s MAU base and order frequency rate both grew YOY, but the primary driver of sales growth was a higher AOV; however, Pickup’s AOV, MAU base, and order frequency all increased at slightly slower paces than delivery’s.
Ship-to-home sales jumped nearly 29 percent versus the prior year as this method posted almost $1.8 billion in sales. Like delivery, ship-to-home’s YOY gains were driven by a surge in MAUs, which may have been fueled partly by the current in-store environment where various categories are merchandised behind locked plexiglass doors to prevent theft. While ship-to-home order frequency and AOV also climbed versus last year, the gains were more muted than those for Delivery. Overall, Ship-to-Home essentially maintained its 17 percent share position.
Building on the strong results for each receiving segment, supermarket and mass retailers also had a positive February. Both posted year-over-year gains across the three core drivers of top-line sales: MAUs, order frequency, and AOV.
In addition, the Grocery (which includes supermarkets and hard discounters) and mass formats reported improvements in repeat intent rates related to delivery and pickup services with grocery closing most of its gap with mass. In fact, the likelihood of reusing the same grocery or mass service again within the next month finished just 7 percent below the pre-COVID rate in February, setting a new post-COVID high that surpasses the record set in January 2025.
“Regional grocers are converting first-time shoppers into more loyal customers as evidenced by the rising repeat intent rates, but so is Walmart,” said Mark Fairhurst, chief growth marketing officer of Mercatus. “While deep discounts have driven a lot of trial, making a good first impression is essential to longer-term success. That means providing a more seamless shopping experience by pairing relevant personalized offers, order fulfilment, and sought-after loyalty rewards to encourage customers to shop online again.”
