On April 5 the National Watermelon Promotion Board released a snapshot of watermelon movement based upon market data collated by the AMS Market News Portal. "After a brief lull, it looks like Mexico is back to their average production if not a tick higher," said Jason Hanselman, the board's industry affairs associate. "Price has fallen off a bit from the highs seen during the lull, but are in line with the average for this time of year."

After nearly a month of well-below-average production, Hanselman said the industry has seen a few weeks of above-average activity. The "To Date Difference in Pounds from Average" during the last reporting week was as follows: Mexico/5.3 million pounds, up 11 percent; Honduras/1.8 million pounds, up 105 percent; Costa Rica/780,000 pounds, up 166 percent; Nicaragua/-468,000 pounds, down 100 percent; Florida/-680,000 pounds, down 100 percent; and Guatemala/-1.25 million pounds, down 21 percent.

"On the year we're still up around 18 percent and the last week is back up around 10 percent," Hanselman stated. "But you can see that over the last month we are down a touch. Central America has helped offset a lot of what Mexico lacked, especially Honduras, and that looks like it should continue for a little while longer. Note that Florida shipments are not being tracked yet, but we only see around 15-20 loads by this point, on average."

Looking at the latest pricing, Hanselman said, "This past week still sits slightly above the average and that precipitous drop certainly isn't out of the norm as just about every year features a similar fall off. You'll notice that the dips and rises become much smaller going forward. The overall trend is down with another step down coming up soon. That will be dependent upon Florida getting their crop moving."

According to Hanselman, offshore imports from Central America haven't seen quite the dip as the Mexican crop, which he said makes sense with all the volatility being seen in imports from Mexico over the last few week. "I'd expect those prices to hold mostly steady if Mexico continues along at their current pace. But an increase to supply would probably be met with a small drop in FOBs."