Though lighter than last year, Sonora spring grape crop may be third largest on record
Though lighter than last year, Sonora spring grape crop may be third largest on record
Volume is expected to be down sharply this year, compared to last year, on early-season Perlettes and to some extent on early Flame seedless and Sugraone grapes out of Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. Some attribute the expected decline to a lack of chill hours. But while early yields will be well below their potential and considerably below earlier expectations, that does not begin to tell the story for the Sonora grape deal as a whole.
Last year's 22.2-million box crop, of which about 17.6 million were exported to the United States, was a huge crop, the largest on record. The U.S. portion consisted of about 3.1 million boxes of Perlettes, 7.3 million boxes of Flames, 5.7 million boxes of Sugraones, 890,000 boxes of Red Globes and 696,000 boxes of black seedless and assorted other varieties.
While this year's crop will be significantly smaller overall -- probably in the 12-million to 15-million pound range -- it is still expected to be the third largest ever. And since the lighter yields will occur primarily at the start of the season, the volume to be marketed throughout the remainder of the season will be substantial.
The harvest is expected to start around the first week in May, but most marketers expect the strongest promotional opportunities this season to come throughout the month of June, with good opportunities as well for Memorial Day weekend, especially on Flames, as well as good opportunities for Fourth of July and post-Fourth of July ads.
"The important thing to remember," said Lee Frankel, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas in Nogales, AZ, is to not be obsessed with comparing this year's crop with last year's record crop.
"Between the volumes grown in Coachella [CA] and Sonora, there [will be] plenty of promotable volume," said Mr. Frankel. "There will be less than last year, but there are still going to be lots and lots of grapes, with the exception of maybe the first couple of weeks of the season."
Just how big the crop is will depend largely on how much growing the berries do between now and harvest, he noted. Vines with lighter bunch sets generally produce larger berries. But if berry sizes on the vines with lighter sets are "just average in size" this year, he expects about 12 million packages of grapes to be shipped to the United States. While that's down by almost one-third from last year and almost one-quarter from 2003, it would still top 2002, the third-highest season to date, when 11.7 million boxes of grapes crossed into the United States.
In the more likely scenario that berry size is above average, as normally occurs with smaller bunch counts, "then 14 to 15 million is realistic," Mr. Frankel said.
The potential in future years is much greater. Producing acreage has increased as a result of plantings in the late 1990s and the first few years of the new millennium.
Over the last two or three years, acreage has held fairly steady, Mr. Frankel said, but older vineyards are being replaced by new ones utilizing "more productive planting, pruning, training and trellising techniques" which will result in "higher yields on the same acreage, probably for another few years to come."
Hermosillo is the earliest of the two grape-growing regions in Sonora and represents about 60 percent of the acreage, noted Bill Sykes, owner of The Sykes Co. in Nogales and chairman of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas. The Hermosillo deal starts in early May and Caborca about a month later. "The Caborca deal looks completely normal" with regard to starting times and yields, he said.
Perlettes, which comprise "about 15 percent of the whole deal" and are grown mainly in Hermosillo, appear to be off "about 30 to 40 percent," he said. Sugraones "might be off a small percentage, but we just don't know yet. It is too early." Flames may be off slightly but look "close to normal levels." But those estimates are based on "early indications" and are only approximate, he stressed.
There are three components that affect crop size, said John Pandol of Pandol Bros. in Delano, CA, who is chairman of FPAA's grape division. Those components are bunch count, bunch size and berry size. On early Perlettes and to some extent on other early grapes, bunch count and bunch size vary from "normal to low to tragic," he said.
As the berries are still growing, actual berry size won't be known "until really almost up to harvest," he said. "We are speculating this year that & 80 percent of the crop will come in the window between May 26 and July 4," Mr. Pandol said. "After the Memorial Day pull is when we are going to start accumulating numbers. We may have a three- week period [in May] that we do [a total of] 3 million boxes." After that, he expects crossings of 2 million packages or more per week for each of the next four weeks, "then a little less than 2 million to finish off the last week."
The 40-day period beginning May 26 is "really when the action is going to happen," he said.
"The front part of the deal, the month of May, should be a little on the light side," said David Clyde of Stevco Inc. in Bakersfield, CA. The Hermosillo area is lighter," especially on Perlettes but also to a degree on Flames and Sugraones. "Once we get into Caborca, I think things will become more normal."
Karen Osborn of Wilson-Batiz of California in Fresno, CA, said she expects to see "more demand for products than we have grapes in the front end of the deal," but for Flames and Sugraones in particular, "they are starting to look a lot better than they did three weeks ago."
"We need to make sure we keep customers interested in buying" because "there will be a lot of good fruit to purchase," said Mark Kalafut of Pacific International Marketing in Visalia, CA.
In May, it will be "difficult to forecast pricing and volume," he said, so "people will be taking a more daily business-type attitude." June will "definitely" be the best month for promotions.
While the May crop "is going to be on the short side," said Jerry Wagner of Farmer's Best in Nogales, "the June crop is normal, and we are looking to do a lot of promotions in June."
He also expects opportunities for promotions for Memorial Day, "but nothing as impressive as we had & last year." "I think the fruit is going to really size up well," said Atomic Torosian of Crown Jewels Marketing in Fresno. "That remains to be seen, but typically if you don't get a lot of warm weather during this stage, the fruit has a tendency to keep growing."
There have been "optimal growing conditions the last two to three weeks," he said, and if that continues, berry size will offset the erratic bunch counts.
"There will be some promotable fruit for the Memorial Day push. Primarily it will be Flames," Mr. Torosian said. Perlettes will be winding down by then and Sugraones will not yet have hit their stride.
The month "we are all gunning for" for promotions is June, Mr. Torosian concluded.
(A full report on the Mexican grape deal appears in the April 17 issue of The Produce News.)
Last year's 22.2-million box crop, of which about 17.6 million were exported to the United States, was a huge crop, the largest on record. The U.S. portion consisted of about 3.1 million boxes of Perlettes, 7.3 million boxes of Flames, 5.7 million boxes of Sugraones, 890,000 boxes of Red Globes and 696,000 boxes of black seedless and assorted other varieties.
While this year's crop will be significantly smaller overall -- probably in the 12-million to 15-million pound range -- it is still expected to be the third largest ever. And since the lighter yields will occur primarily at the start of the season, the volume to be marketed throughout the remainder of the season will be substantial.
The harvest is expected to start around the first week in May, but most marketers expect the strongest promotional opportunities this season to come throughout the month of June, with good opportunities as well for Memorial Day weekend, especially on Flames, as well as good opportunities for Fourth of July and post-Fourth of July ads.
"The important thing to remember," said Lee Frankel, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas in Nogales, AZ, is to not be obsessed with comparing this year's crop with last year's record crop.
"Between the volumes grown in Coachella [CA] and Sonora, there [will be] plenty of promotable volume," said Mr. Frankel. "There will be less than last year, but there are still going to be lots and lots of grapes, with the exception of maybe the first couple of weeks of the season."
Just how big the crop is will depend largely on how much growing the berries do between now and harvest, he noted. Vines with lighter bunch sets generally produce larger berries. But if berry sizes on the vines with lighter sets are "just average in size" this year, he expects about 12 million packages of grapes to be shipped to the United States. While that's down by almost one-third from last year and almost one-quarter from 2003, it would still top 2002, the third-highest season to date, when 11.7 million boxes of grapes crossed into the United States.
In the more likely scenario that berry size is above average, as normally occurs with smaller bunch counts, "then 14 to 15 million is realistic," Mr. Frankel said.
The potential in future years is much greater. Producing acreage has increased as a result of plantings in the late 1990s and the first few years of the new millennium.
Over the last two or three years, acreage has held fairly steady, Mr. Frankel said, but older vineyards are being replaced by new ones utilizing "more productive planting, pruning, training and trellising techniques" which will result in "higher yields on the same acreage, probably for another few years to come."
Hermosillo is the earliest of the two grape-growing regions in Sonora and represents about 60 percent of the acreage, noted Bill Sykes, owner of The Sykes Co. in Nogales and chairman of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas. The Hermosillo deal starts in early May and Caborca about a month later. "The Caborca deal looks completely normal" with regard to starting times and yields, he said.
Perlettes, which comprise "about 15 percent of the whole deal" and are grown mainly in Hermosillo, appear to be off "about 30 to 40 percent," he said. Sugraones "might be off a small percentage, but we just don't know yet. It is too early." Flames may be off slightly but look "close to normal levels." But those estimates are based on "early indications" and are only approximate, he stressed.
There are three components that affect crop size, said John Pandol of Pandol Bros. in Delano, CA, who is chairman of FPAA's grape division. Those components are bunch count, bunch size and berry size. On early Perlettes and to some extent on other early grapes, bunch count and bunch size vary from "normal to low to tragic," he said.
As the berries are still growing, actual berry size won't be known "until really almost up to harvest," he said. "We are speculating this year that & 80 percent of the crop will come in the window between May 26 and July 4," Mr. Pandol said. "After the Memorial Day pull is when we are going to start accumulating numbers. We may have a three- week period [in May] that we do [a total of] 3 million boxes." After that, he expects crossings of 2 million packages or more per week for each of the next four weeks, "then a little less than 2 million to finish off the last week."
The 40-day period beginning May 26 is "really when the action is going to happen," he said.
"The front part of the deal, the month of May, should be a little on the light side," said David Clyde of Stevco Inc. in Bakersfield, CA. The Hermosillo area is lighter," especially on Perlettes but also to a degree on Flames and Sugraones. "Once we get into Caborca, I think things will become more normal."
Karen Osborn of Wilson-Batiz of California in Fresno, CA, said she expects to see "more demand for products than we have grapes in the front end of the deal," but for Flames and Sugraones in particular, "they are starting to look a lot better than they did three weeks ago."
"We need to make sure we keep customers interested in buying" because "there will be a lot of good fruit to purchase," said Mark Kalafut of Pacific International Marketing in Visalia, CA.
In May, it will be "difficult to forecast pricing and volume," he said, so "people will be taking a more daily business-type attitude." June will "definitely" be the best month for promotions.
While the May crop "is going to be on the short side," said Jerry Wagner of Farmer's Best in Nogales, "the June crop is normal, and we are looking to do a lot of promotions in June."
He also expects opportunities for promotions for Memorial Day, "but nothing as impressive as we had & last year." "I think the fruit is going to really size up well," said Atomic Torosian of Crown Jewels Marketing in Fresno. "That remains to be seen, but typically if you don't get a lot of warm weather during this stage, the fruit has a tendency to keep growing."
There have been "optimal growing conditions the last two to three weeks," he said, and if that continues, berry size will offset the erratic bunch counts.
"There will be some promotable fruit for the Memorial Day push. Primarily it will be Flames," Mr. Torosian said. Perlettes will be winding down by then and Sugraones will not yet have hit their stride.
The month "we are all gunning for" for promotions is June, Mr. Torosian concluded.
(A full report on the Mexican grape deal appears in the April 17 issue of The Produce News.)
