As expected, the break in vegetable demand at the end of November brought the lettuce market down to earth, but a solid market is expected as the Christmas pull begins the week of Dec. 8-12.

Vic Smith of JV Smith Cos., a large vegetable grower headquartered in Yuma, AZ, told The Produce News Dec. 5 that the early-season quality problems that limited supplies have cleared up. Those issues resulted in decreased volume and a demand-exceed-supply situation for the Thanksgiving pull.

"We had temperatures five to 15 degrees above normal [during much of the growing season]," he said. "This meant most fields started seven to 14 days ahead of schedule and the quality we had in November was a challenge."

While that situation is in the past, the desert areas of California and Arizona did get some rain over the first few days of December.

"We like water, but we like to be in control of applying it when and where we need it," Smith said. "This rain could produce some mildew issues."

Hence he expects a strong market as the calls for increased holiday supplies begin next week, with a potential for expected volume to take even a slight hit.

Echoing those same sentiments was Mark McBride, who handles sales for Coastline Produce, a Salinas, CA, firm with desert production in the winter. He agreed that the early short supply situation had solved itself, which was reflected in lettuce prices around the $10 market during this post-Thanksgiving week, when demand is typically light.

"But the market is starting to get stronger," he said Dec. 5.

By the week of Dec. 8 and continuing through the week of Dec. 15, McBride expects a strong market for lettuce and many other leaf items. However, he doesn't expect it to rise to the pre-Thanksgiving level of $20-$30 per carton, at least not for the lettuces.

Cauliflower and celery are a different story.

"Even this week when demand for everything is very low, those two items were in a demand-exceeds-supply situation," he said. "Supplies could get very tight moving forward."

The Market News Service Report for Thursday, Dec. 4, gave testament to that. Cauliflower was trading at $27-$30 per 12-count carton, while the celery f.o.b. was listed at $17 to $20 for a carton of two dozen stalks. Both items are very popular throughout the holiday season, so demand is expected to continue to be very strong and most likely will outpace supply.

For consumers looking for a bargain vegetable item, broccoli is the best bet. After Thanksgiving, the price dipped to well below a break-even level with the f.o.b. market running at $7-$8 per carton. While it should also get a holiday boost, supplies are currently plentiful.

McBride of Coastline said it probably won't be until the Christmas pull is over before supply and demand on most vegetable crops gets back into line. But again, that's three weeks away and the ensuing weather will play a big role.

As McBride was speaking with The Produce News, the California and Arizona desert production regions had a forecast for more rain next week. How much rains falls and when it falls will have a big impact on the market price moving forward.

McBride said a shower late in the day is not nearly as disruptive as an early-morning rain that keeps the harvesters out of the fields.