The biennial Agriflor show took place in the CEMEXPO Convention Center in Quito, Ecuador, Oct. 1-4. The show was well attended by buyers from all over the world as well as exhibitors representing growers and related suppliers from Ecuador, Colombia, Peru and beyond.

The overall mood that I sensed at this show was a mixture of optimism, due to recent good production and solid market returns by most farms, coupled with a sense of caution and uncertainty based upon multiple domestic and global developments.

Beyond the imposition of duties on all Ecuadoran flowers shipped to the United States that began on Aug. 1, 2013, with the expiration of the Andean Trade Promotion & Drug Eradication Act, including a 6.8 percent rate on roses, Ecuadoran growers are also facing uncertainty in their second biggest rose market, Russia, where the conflict with Ukraine and the resulting sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union, combined with the falling price of oil and the plummeting ruble, have lead to justifiable doubt about the short- and long-term viability of this market.

The European Union is another market that has been traditionally important to Ecuador, and yet again, economic weakness in this part of the world worries flower exporters. As if the economic and political turmoil in Europe and Eurasia were not enough, Ecuador is being challenged in these markets by rapidly advancing production volume and quality from African rose producers in Kenya and Ethiopia.

On the freight front, the Ecuadoran market was adversely affected when Centurion Airlines ceased daily flights after Sept. 7, 2014, eliminating roughly 20 percent of the cargo capacity from Quito to Miami. The remaining cargo airlines have seized upon this opportunity to raise rates, having done so at least twice in slightly more than one month, resulting in freight cost increases of around 20 percent since early September.

The domestic political situation in Ecuador is perhaps the most difficult situation that the growers have to navigate. Since Rafael Correa was first elected president of Ecuador in 2006 he has raised taxes on businesses, actively antagonized Ecuador’s biggest trading partner (the United States) and imposed multiple increases in the minimum wage rate. These populist measures have pushed Ecuador’s budget to a very precarious position, significantly raised the cost of doing business in Ecuador as well as alienated Ecuador’s relations with the United States; however, they have helped him to win reelection twice more, most recently in 2013. Labor costs alone have doubled since Correa first took office and now represent 50 percent of the total cost of production for most rose farms — all this in a market where the sale price has remained stagnant.

In spite of the many negatives that I have mentioned above, the overall sense that I got from visiting with growers was one of optimism. Having survived the economic crisis of the last few years, most farms are more efficient in their operations and are focused on implementing technology to automate processes and more productively deploy their resources. They are focusing their marketing efforts in areas where they have a geographic advantage — not just the United States, but the developing economies of Chile, Brazil and Peru.

Of course, the one thing that stays the same in Ecuador is the perfect growing conditions to produce roses, gyp, hypericum and summer flowers of incomparable quality.

Much has changed in the floral world since the last Agriflor show in 2012, and more changes are in store between now and the next show in 2016; the growers that I spoke with are up to the challenge.

Frank Biddle is a partner in Tradewinds International in Boulder, CO. He is also the owner and president of FBI Flowers in Vista, CA. He can be contacted at [email protected].