The one-week suspension of imports of avocados from Mexico was lifted on Feb. 18, and shipments were expected to reach pre-suspension levels as soon as the week of Feb. 20.

The suspension had been issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Feb. 11 after a U.S. inspector working in an avocado packingshed in the state of Michoacan reported a verbal threat.  The USDA immediately announced the ban and began working with Mexican officials to address the problem. In a press release, USDA warned that the suspension would “remain in place for as long as necessary to ensure the appropriate actions are taken” to secure the safety of USDA inspectors and other personnel working in Mexico.

In announcing the lifting of the ban, USDA released a statement ending the suspension and noting that Mexico would put more safety measure in place, but did not detail those efforts. “The safety of U.S.D.A. employees simply doing their jobs is of paramount importance,” the department said. “USDA is appreciative of the positive, collaborative relationship between the United States and Mexico that made resolution of this issue possible in a timely manner.”

The Association of Avocado Exporting Producers and Packers of Mexico (APEAM) revealed that the association presented a comprehensive proposal for the creation of an Intelligence and Security Unit within APEAM to support the export program. APEAM statement noted that the “proposal was approved by all parties, and an agreement has been accepted to resume the full export program of Mexican avocados to the United States starting Monday, February 21, 2022.”

In the statement, APEAM Director General Armando López Orduña revealed that the action plan includes the immediate implementation of an operational security plan by the government of Michoacán.

Rob Wedin, executive vice president of sales for Calavo Growers Inc., Santa Paula, CA, confirmed on Tuesday, Feb. 22, that Mexican packingsheds had resumed full operation and this week would see a resumption of significant volume of avocdos from Mexico.

In fact, on the Hass Avocado Board website, which maintains an ongoing “Volume Data & Projections” page relaying the forecast from each producing country, it was estimated that Mexico would pack about 55 million pounds of avocdo for U.S. export this week and another 57 million for the first week of March.

The suspension in shipments did result in only about 24 million pounds coming into the United States from Mexico during the week of Feb. 13.  That was the case because fruit already in transit or in storage was allowed to be shipped into the U.S. Wedin said the drop in supplies did result in an increase in the market price as well as an increase in fruit harvested in California for the U.S. market. His figures showed that California harvested 7.5 million pounds during the week of Feb. 13, which was substantially greater than the projections of just a couple of weeks ago.

Wedin said the strong pricing and the suspension of Mexico shipments clearly led some growers to alter their picking schedule. In fact, the Calavo executive said the firm did ask its California growers to consider picking fruit last week. On Feb. 22, Wedin said the f.o.b. price on 48s from California was about $64 per carton, while size 60 fruit returned $60 and size 70s checked in at $48. Though he did not go through his historical data to confirm that these were record prices for this time of year, Wedin said they were either all-time highs or very close to it.

The short duration of the suspension means that the avocado market was not disrupted in any major way initially, but Wedin said the impact of the higher pricing will linger. He noted that California growers have jumped into the market much quicker than expected with current shipments “about two months ahead of schedule.” Originally, the HAB projection page predicted California would send about 6-8 million cartons to market in Feb., but it appears that the final number will be over 20 million cartons. California had estimated its crop to be around 306 million pounds for the season with about 80 percent of the volume marketed from April through July. It now appears that a larger percentage of the fruit than anticipated will be sold prior to April. Wedin said if the pattern continues, shipments in late June through July will be less than predicted.

But he added that this could be a good thing for California growers who are getting excellent returns currently. The marketing situation that will present itself in late June through July may be much different as he noted that the opening of avocado imports from the state of Jalisco for the first time, which is expected to begin in late June, should put more Mexican avocados in the U.S. market. In addition, Mexico is anticipating a larger than usual summer crop from Michoacan and Peru has estimated that it will ship more fruit to the United States in that time frame.

Wedin also noted that the current high avocado prices are causing a bit of a pullback in promotions from U.S. retailers. There is an expectation that the f.o.b. price will drop as Mexico ramps up its production. Some retailers, he said, cancelled promotions and are waiting for that price to come down again before putting avocados on an ad again.

Photo courtesy of Liz West.