Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me, the title of a 1966 novel by Richard Farina, probably expresses the feelings of many in the floral industry, battered by the worst recession in decades.

But things are looking up. A new poll shows 62 percent of the U.S. population expects a better year economically for the nation in 2012, and 78 percent expect it to be better for themselves and their families.

Consumer trends forecast by a “retail prophet,” 6,500 attendees swarming 800 booths in a 200,000-square-foot exhibit hall, and short courses and demonstrations on topics ranging from “biomimicry” and “natural enemies” to more conventional team-building and customer service, with “Fairy Garden Essentials” thrown in for good measure. Not to mention a tour of nurseries.

Tunnel vision anyone? Discard it, ASAP. After traveling more than 150,000 air miles in 2011, visiting trade shows and all parts of our industry here and abroad, I conclude that some sectors have bottomed out and are on the way back up. Some, however, are not. Let’s look at who is going to bask in the light in 2012 and who will still be in the dark.

The mass market

My 2011 prediction was that “the wholesale model is very alive for those that have a sound growth strategy, a willingness to adapt and partner, the proper capital to feed the business and the passion for our industry.” It appears to have been mostly correct.

I think many wholesale companies do have a sound strategy for growth, have adapted and partnered with growers and suppliers, plus have intense passion for our industry.

After having spent almost 20 years in the floral industry, the last nine of which were in supermarket floral, I now have a position in Price Chopper where I look at the entire store and all of our customers. I will point out a few trends that are happening in the entire store and how they can affect floral holiday sales in supermarkets.

The California Cut Flower Commission has come up empty-handed in its bid for $10 million in federal funds for a consolidated flower shipping facility in Central California near Oxnard. The commission had applied for a federal grant under the Department of Transportation’s stimulus program, called Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery, or TIGER.

The TIGER program is now in its third year and typically has drawn applications seeking 40 times the amount of funding available.