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2024 online grocery: A tale of two sales periods

By
Craig Levitt

The online grocery market ended December 2024 with $9.6 billion in monthly sales, an 18.7 percent increase over last year as all three fulfillment methods posted year-over-year sales gains according to the Brick Meets Click/Mercatus Grocery Shopper Survey. December marks the fifth straight month of eGrocery sales above $9.5 billion and caps off a year that essentially reflected two periods: before and after the appearance of discounted promotions on subscriptions and/or membership programs.

Overall eGrocery sales during the first half of 2024 were basically flat, posting only a 0.3 percent gain versus the first half of 2023. However, during the second half of 2024, eGrocery sales surged 17.7 percent YOY, driving annual sales up 9.1 percent versus 2023. 

All three receiving methods reported similar shifts in their sales performance between the first and second half of the year. Delivery’s growth rate increased from less than 4 percent in the first half of 2024 to more than 25 percent in the second half. Ship-to-Home’s growth rate also jumped dramatically, increasing from 5 percent to approximately 20 percent between the two periods. Pickup, which declined 4 percent during the January-June period, posted a nearly 8 percent gain during the July-December 2024 period.

The main difference between the two periods was the broad presence and aggressive promotion of annual subscriptions or memberships that began in mid-year and have continued off and on since then. Discounts, ranging from 33 percent to 80 percent off, were seen from a variety of marketplace providers, mass retailers, plus national and regional supermarkets as well.

“While subscriptions and memberships aren’t new, the deep discounts were new, and they resonated with customers by offering the opportunity for significant savings,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “As a result, customers are more vested in their provider-of-choice, motivating many to place more orders which helps those providers to gain a larger share of the grocery wallet and improve engagement and retention rates.”

Looking at the monthly sales results for December 2024, each receiving method posted YOY gains, reversing the sales decline that all three reported in the prior year. Delivery grew 24.6 percent YOY in December to $4 billion, accounting for 41.7 percent of total eGrocery sales, up from 39.8 percent last year. Pickup monthly sales climbed 5.3 percent YOY to $3.8 billion and Ship-to-Home sales surged nearly 40 percent YOY to $1.8 billion, contributing 18.9 percent of total eGrocery sales, up from 15.9 percent in December 2023.

Grocery operators continue to face increasing challenges to online growth, especially given the stiff competition from mass retailers. In terms of penetration, more than half of all monthly active users (MAUs) completed one or more online grocery orders with a mass retailer during December 2024, while only approximately one-third of all MAUs completed at least one online order with a grocery operator. 

"Regional grocers looking to boost eGrocery sales should focus on delivering real savings and targeted loyalty perks,” said Mark Fairhurst, chief growth marketing officer at Mercatus. “By leveraging AI-driven personalization and integrated loyalty solutions, grocers can convert occasional shoppers into loyal digital customers, driving repeat orders and larger baskets across both online and in-store channels, to fuel sustained growth.”

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