“The California season is underway and by the end of this week (Feb. 28) 6 percent of the estimated volume will have been harvested,” Shore said, adding that the early volume is much more than is typical. “And we are expecting increased volume in March.”
He noted that January volume was excellent and that rain in February as well as more forecasted for early March bodes well for spring volume to continue to be robust compared to traditional picking schedules. “We expect the bulk of the crop to be harvested in April, May and June,” he said.
He added that this year’s crop has a different feel than usual as the field prices are very good for this early part of the season and growers are picking to cover that increased demand. “The field prices are definitely higher than last year,” Shore said.
The early pre-season estimated pegged the crop at 400 million pounds. Some wind and fire events have scaled that California Avocado Commission estimate back about 6 percent to 375 million pounds. The 2024 crop yielded about 365 million pounds of fresh avocados. Shore said the Calavo estimating team expects total volume to be right between those two numbers.
He believes there will be very good demand for California avocados throughout the spring and into the summer. “California plays a vital role for the Western U.S. markets,” he said, noting that the market price should be favorable but will also allow for promotional opportunities.
The strong market, according to the Calavo executive, has a lot to do with the Mexican avocado volume, which is down about 10-15 percent compared to 2024.
He did add that market factors will come into play when discussing price and available promotions. One big factor that was the top topic of conversation as this interview was being conducted in late February was the threat of tariffs on Mexican avocados by President Trump. If a 25 percent tariff is enacted, as proposed, Shore said that will inflate the price of an imported avocado and market parity will find its place.
Seemingly, California avocados, which are typically sold at a premium during the peak of their season, will continue to command that premium as it is mostly driven by demand. That is not expected to change regardless of the tariff situation.
Circling back to the crop on the California trees during this late winter period, Shore said size and maintenance picking because of the strong market have resulted in the fruit peaking on size 60 fruit. “As we move through the spring, we should see 48s being the peak size,” he said, reasoning that February and still to come March rains will help the sizing.
Calavo will once again have a California bag program featuring both Hass and GEM variety avocados. GEM volume is predicted to reach 8 million pounds this year, which is sufficient to single it out in the marketplace, Shore said. “The variety is definitely resonating with growers and consumers,” he said. “We continue to see more plantings. Here in Ventura County, we are seeing growers transition some citrus orchards into avocados (Hass, Lamb Hass and GEM varieties).”
The spring should also see additional fruit from Colombia in the U.S. marketplace. In late spring/early summer, Shore said Peru should be exporting to the United States with expectations that its fruit will return to the larger sizes (32s, 36s, 40s and 48s) that its relatively young groves are known for. On average, last year’s fruit was smaller than usual.
