Calavo anticipates steady avocado flow from Mexico

For a host of reasons, including weather issues, a suspension of inspections for a couple of weeks and a much larger 2024 crop from California than originally estimated there has been some uncertainty in the avocado supply situation this calendar year, which has led to a very strong market.

As Mexico will now be supplying about 95 percent of U.S. supplies for the next five or six months, there is anticipation that there will be a more predictable stream of avocados to the U.S. market. “We should see a steady, more consistent fruit flow,” said Peter Shore, vice president of production management for Calavo Growers Inc., Santa Paula, CA.

In fact, projections for the rest of 2024, which are displayed on the Hass Avocado Board website, bear this out. From the last week of October through the end of the December, the projections from Mexico, which are developed by their industry associations, call for a supply ranging from a low of just under 50 million pounds per week to a high of about 59 million pounds. Taken in two-week intervals, it is expected that about 110 million pounds will be sent through the U.S. border every two weeks.

There is also anticipation that the fruit will skew a bit larger because of the solid rain that Mexico has had since August, presumably ending a prolonged period of drought. However, Shore said it is still not clear that the rain will have a lasting impact on the size curve. Asked to make a prediction, he called it “crystal ball time…and there isn’t a clear answer.”

At the present time, the Calavo executive said the size curve is trending toward 60/70/48/84. “We are still seeing smaller sizes coming in and peaking on 60/70,” he said.

In mid-October, Shore said the industry in general is predicting summer’s plentiful rain should produce a shift in the size curve in the coming weeks, moving toward a peak on 48s and 60s with better availability on large sizes. But he was not yet willing to project that result for the rest of the year. “We will see how this transpires in November and December,” he said.

In the meantime, Calavo Executive Vice President of Sales & Operations Mike Browne noted that the company is in an excellent position to service its customer with Mexico’s production because of its multiple options. “We continue to leverage Calavo’s robust sourcing and packing competencies from our Michoacan and Jalisco packinghouses,” he said, noting the company’s two-state sourcing strategy.

He also said Calavo is already looking ahead to 2025’s spring and summer production. “We are preparing for convergence of increasing origin supplies from multiple sources, including California,” he said.

Shore, who is a member of the board of the California Avocado Commission, revealed that preliminary indications are the state will produce a 400-million-pound crop for the first time in about a decade. The 2024 crop came in at close to 350 million pounds, far exceeding the preseason estimate. Shore said increased plantings and excellent yields produced the good results for 2024.

Calavo also announced the hiring of Anna Kirsch as director of business development. She will spearhead Calavo’s strategic growth initiatives within the avocado business segment in this newly created role. A company press release noted that Kirsch has 15 years of experience in the food and beverage industry, including 12 years in fresh produce. Prior to joining Clavo, she held key positions in avocado sales and marketing at Westfalia Fruit and Avocados From Mexico.

“We are thrilled to welcome Anna to the Calavo team” said Vice President of Fresh Sales Gordon Breschini. “To bring someone of Anna’s caliber onboard, with her deep understanding of the avocado category, extensive experience and passion for the industry, makes her an ideal fit for this role. Anna’s leadership will play a pivotal role in driving new and current relationships with our trusted partners.”